ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Erin looked better early this morning; the generally flat pressure trend and cloud filled eye may suggest it’s starting to feel the effects of shear.

[BobHarlem]

 https://x.com/treytwister_wx/status/1957411988260217146


x: Ummm ok. #Erin is about to be like that kid that screws around too long and misses a ride on the school bus. That trough to the north is very close to passing by #Erin and start its more substantial pull to the north. Going to be a very close call, but it should start soon.

[DW5522]

Hey guys I normally just stick to the winter threads but my brother is leaving for South Carolina Tuesday, what kind of conditions can they expect? Maybe just rain, wind and rough surf?

Rough surf late tomorrow through Thursday. Tides maybe 1-2 feet higher than normal. North wind 25 mph or so.

Thanks bud.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1957452310948286658

[Fancy1002]

I can’t tell what’s happening right now

[BobHarlem]

11AM position
23.1N 70.8W
last recon vortex:
22.92N 70.68W

Not sure why they are deviating so much.

[TampaWxLurker]

Was moving at 305° at 8am, now at 11am listed as 300°.

[GCANE]

Latest recon fix is 10nm west of forecast track

[Teban54]

Clearly feeling some shear (and maybe upwelling).

[aspen]

Erin looked better early this morning; the generally flat pressure trend and cloud filled eye may suggest it’s starting to feel the effects of shear.

Yeah it took too long with the EWRC and missed its optimal window for re-intensification. The eye is very clouded now, and earlier I noticed that outflow on the northern side seemed restricted.

Shear should peak tomorrow and then another option for intensification could be on Wednesday, when a huge outflow channel opens to the north as it gets picked up and recurves.

[crimi481]

I dont see what would stop the westward track change

[GCANE]

Hmm, I wonder if there is some sort of decoupling going on.
IR relative to Recon looks weird.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sure if it means much in the long run, but the recent NHC update has Erin moving WNW at 10 mph.

The previous update had Erin moving NW at 13 mph.

[tolakram]

This is the Cirrus only view from COD. Looking north of Erin you can see some of the cloud tops moving south, indicating shear. In a no shear environment the outflow should be rotating clockwise away from the storm.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is the Cirrus only view from COD. Looking north of Erin you can see some of the cloud tops moving south, indicating shear. In a no shear environment the outflow should be rotating clockwise away from the storm.

https://i.imgur.com/BwykaHQ.gif

Yes there does seem to be some shear, and the eye is starting to be less distinct

[ScottNAtlanta]

We have now passed the avg ACE for this date as Erin will continue to add ACE points

[syfr]

 https://x.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1957452310948286658

That would be up at the north end of O'coke , heading to Hatteras. Thankfully that ferry runs pretty frequently.

[xironman]

It looks like it has stalled and is now drifting north. Not unexpected.

[Nimbus]

It looks like it has stalled and is now drifting north. Not unexpected.

There is a second TUTT to the north that cut off up near Maine and is rolling east.

Doesn't look like we will get a third TUTT looks more like the eastern periphery of a high will be dropping some shear onto ERIN from the north.

Weakness would be way back around Colorado in that case but 72 hours makes a big difference.
Some of this fluid motion is random, that is why they need to evacuate in case the models are off by 150 miles after 72 hours.

[72Packer]

 https://x.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1957452310948286658

That would be up at the north end of O'coke , heading to Hatteras. Thankfully that ferry runs pretty frequently.

There are no homes on the North end of Ocracoke Island. Much of the island has eroded away. If this photo represents traffic leaving Ocracoke (or already crossed) to cross Hatteras Inlet, the line is about ten miles long on Ocracoke. This could be traffic being lined up on Hatteras Island to meter traffic through 50 miles of two lane road.