Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (10/60)

[Woofde]

USTropics great analysis and read! Will be interesting to see which vort max wins out, bur it is interesting to see most of the convection is really favoring the purple circle that you have shown above in the post

Ditto, love the breakdowns! The purple area has the advantage of being over warmer SSTs, I'd favor it to win.

[BobHarlem]

The 12z Euro is not developing this either, and recurves the reflection just west of Bermuda. GFS operational and the ensembles (GFS and some euro) are really the only ones showing it right now. (This includes the Uk, Icon, and Canadian, which also don't show development)

Yep. The trend is your friend.

I don't think this is a trend, just pointing out where things are right now. I do think the multiple vort areas are confusing some of the models, most of them are picking on the north one. I'm watching all the rest closely to see which way they go. It's not going to develop early on like Erin did. I think all that means is it needs a little more time to cook before things get clearer.

[StPeteMike]

Agreed, great breakdown USTropics! Always appreciate the time and posts for many of our storms that you post your analysis for.

[StPeteMike]

For the short term at least, a good comparison storm is 2005 Emily I think. Ignoring that Emily developed a month and a week earlier, the beginning life came from the interaction of a tropical wave and the ITZ and also struggled to get itself together until 42W.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Euro not really showing development is kinda typical, it usually is the last to sniff out development whereas GFS is more likely.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1957535434432516520

[Weathertracker96]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1957535434432516520

Based on this, does this show an opening or could the high build back in moving this west? It seems based on this, Erin is almost out the picture

[IcyTundra]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1957535434432516520

Based on this, does this show an opening or could the high build back in moving this west? It seems based on this, Erin is almost out the picture

Seems like the hurricane models are more in agreement with the GFS with a more southern track threatening PR and the Northern Leewards. That map is just showing sea level pressure so I would have to see what those models are forecasting for the pattern at 500MB as that level of the atmosphere gives a better idea on how a system would be steered. I think the general idea though is that there will be a weakness that could allow for this AOI to turn into if it is far enough to the north to feel it. If it is further south it might be able to slip underneath the weakness with the subtropical ridge building back into the west depending on how quickly Erin gets out of the picture.

[Stratton23]

The high could build back in, it all depends on how ERIN exits the atlantic really, but it also depends on where this tracks, if its north of puerto rico its likely to be an east coast threat or out to sea, but if it takes a track through the caribbean then it could miss the trough to its north and get into the gulf, either way i think the HAFS model suite is way too aggressive given this wave has several vort maxes competing to take over, this will be a slow process the next few days so i think intensity wise they are over doing it

[ConvergenceZone]

Apparently it takes three to tango. I want to show how nuanced this process is, because it's quite fascinating and unknown what the end result will be here. Something models didn't really catch on to until yesterday was a third vorticity maxima at the mid-levels. I've highlighted the three areas observed here from earlier today in the 700mb CIMSS vorticity product:
https://i.imgur.com/GwxjZjf.png

excellent analysis. Thanks for sharing!

[SFLcane]

12z euro ensembles..

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: aiming for Bermuda and weak (only a TD this run)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 18.7N 59.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2025 96 18.7N 59.7W 1010 28
0000UTC 23.08.2025 108 19.7N 62.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 23.08.2025 120 21.0N 65.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 24.08.2025 132 22.5N 67.0W 1011 26
1200UTC 24.08.2025 144 24.0N 68.0W 1013 29
0000UTC 25.08.2025 156 26.8N 67.7W 1013 29
1200UTC 25.08.2025 168 29.5N 66.1W 1014 29

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA fwiw also has it very weak but disagrees with the 12Z UKMET on the track with it near Cuba at 192.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1957535434432516520

Based on this, does this show an opening or could the high build back in moving this west? It seems based on this, Erin is almost out the picture

Seems like the hurricane models are more in agreement with the GFS with a more southern track threatening PR and the Northern Leewards. That map is just showing sea level pressure so I would have to see what those models are forecasting for the pattern at 500MB as that level of the atmosphere gives a better idea on how a system would be steered. I think the general idea though is that there will be a weakness that could allow for this AOI to turn into if it is far enough to the north to feel it. If it is further south it might be able to slip underneath the weakness with the subtropical ridge building back into the west depending on how quickly Erin gets out of the picture.

The outer grid of all the US high res hurricane models is initialized off the GFS, so it might not be a surprise if they would favor the GFS solution. The not high res statistical model SHIPS is run with both GFS input and Euro input but I can only get GFS SHIPS.

[IcyTundra]

The wave is strung out on the 18Z GFS and is struggling to develop.

[Stratton23]

long ways to go with this one, more weight should be given to the ensembles at this range, still lots of things can happen with this wave

[BobHarlem]

Don't confuse this 18z run here with Erin, with the OBX near miss, but it goes for long island after this.

[Spacecoast]

21z mid-level vorticity...

[eastcoastFL]

A couple of people mentioned needing the rain from a tropical storm and that it hardly rains in SE Floriday anymore, but don't you guys still get afternoon thunderstorms? I visited the Miami area a couple of summers back and almost every afternoon there were thunderstorms popping up with some pretty crazy downpours.

We've had maybe a handful of afternoon storms this entire summer. It's been dry like the desert.

[Kazmit]

Wouldn’t be a happy hour GFS without the devastation of a major US city