ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Zonacane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/3526/mV1GAR.gif

Yuck

[Zonacane]

Good news for the OBX at least, but that is revolting to look at.

[syfr]

 https://x.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1957452310948286658

That would be up at the north end of O'coke , heading to Hatteras. Thankfully that ferry runs pretty frequently.

There are no homes on the North end of Ocracoke Island. Much of the island has eroded away. If this photo represents traffic leaving Ocracoke (or already crossed) to cross Hatteras Inlet, the line is about ten miles long on Ocracoke. This could be traffic being lined up on Hatteras Island to meter traffic through 50 miles of two lane road.

Hard to tell what this picture represents but its not the village/harbor end of Ocracoke. The label is "ocracoke North" so that's a clue

We've been to Ocoke 1-2 times a year for 20 yrs and have always danced around storms in the fall. We've also left the island a day earlier than planned (with ferry reservations!!) to avoid just this kind of logjam.

It take very very little to disrupt/bisect 12 at the northern end of the island that's for sure. The drive from Hatteras N. to Manteo is a crawl.

[BobHarlem]

That would be up at the north end of O'coke , heading to Hatteras. Thankfully that ferry runs pretty frequently.

There are no homes on the North end of Ocracoke Island. Much of the island has eroded away. If this photo represents traffic leaving Ocracoke (or already crossed) to cross Hatteras Inlet, the line is about ten miles long on Ocracoke. This could be traffic being lined up on Hatteras Island to meter traffic through 50 miles of two lane road.

Hard to tell what this picture represents but its not the village/harbor end of Ocracoke. The label is "ocracoke North" so that's a clue

We've been to Ocoke 1-2 times a year for 20 yrs and have always danced around storms in the fall. We've also left the island a day earlier than planned (with ferry reservations!!) to avoid just this kind of logjam.

It take very very little to disrupt/bisect 12 at the northern end of the island that's for sure. The drive from Hatteras N. to Manteo is a crawl.

It's the ferry dock at the north end of Ocracoke, it's on the NCDOT cameras see https://drivenc.gov/ and flip on the cameras.

Also check the cameras up on Pea Island just north of Rodanthe and you'll see clearly why they are evacuating.

[tolakram]

Latest Cirrus view



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-04-200-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[Jr0d]

snip.pic

I'm borrowing your image.

Even with the hurricane winds stay offshore as predicted the waves, erosion and surge will be extreme if the ICON is anywhere close. Unless the storms goes further east than currently forecast, I do not see how the OBX will avoid roads being washed out and coastal homes being swept away, especially south of the Cape. Frisco and Ocrakoke Island will be exposed to highest waves.

This is a dangerous situation and I hope we do not have any amateur storm chasers who think they will be ok out there because the strongest winds will remain offshore and take unnecessary risk in hopes of getting clicks.

As I posted before that I am happy to see the emergency management team is proactive and not wasting anytime with issueing evacuation orders.

[abajan]

18Z Best Track:

AL, 05, 2025081818, , BEST, 0, 236N, 710W, 120, 937, HU

[abajan]

Dr. Cowan's latest video on Erin:



Link: https://youtu.be/2MoAT-26LdI

[abajan]

NHC's video on Erin recorded earlier today:



Link: https://youtu.be/_C6wjfOszbc

So, assuming some of you are wondering how I embedded those YouTube videos, please see this thread.

[GCANE]

IR is showing 3 or 4 shock waves on the eastern side of the CoC.

[Nimbus]

Rte 12 travels the length of the barrier islands with a few gaps.
Elevation is 2 ft in some places lower than the sand dunes which are about 5 feet.
15 foot surf would over wash most of that and erosion further north from 10 foot surf can cause a lot of damage.
Be pretty scary trying to ride that out in a stilt home on the back side of the island.

[Kohlecane]

Rte 12 travels the length of the barrier islands with a few gaps.
Elevation is 2 ft in some places lower than the sand dunes which are about 5 feet.
15 foot surf would over wash most of that and erosion further north from 10 foot surf can cause a lot of damage.
Be pretty scary trying to ride that out in a stilt home on the back side of the island.

This is the true reality, that sadly most wont bat an eye at!

[Sciencerocks]

[Jr0d]

Here is the current GFS wave height predict. Keep in mind both the EURO and ICON are forecasting an even stronger storm as it approaches.



I won't be surprised if we get a few new inlets in the Outer Banks.

[mitchell]

Here is the current GFS wave height predict. Keep in mind both the EURO and ICON are forecasting an even stronger storm as it approaches.

https://i.ibb.co/YHS3hY5/Screenshot-20250818-182607-Chrome.jpg

I won't be surprised if we get a few new inlets in the Outer Banks.

I would be very surprised if Erin creates the amount of storm surge into the sounds, and the rapid drainage that creates new inlets. To be sure there will be lots of wave runup, overwash, and sand deposition onto lots and roads and a real pounding. But unless the eye actually passes so close that hurricane force onshore winds are followed by a relatively rapid switch offshore with high enough surge level in the sounds to drain back across the barrier island and cut inlet channels on the ebb tide, I doubt inlet formation will happen. It takes a pretty specific set of conditions for real inlet formation.

[mitchell]

deleted duplicate post

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

0Z Best Track:

AL, 05, 2025081900, , BEST, 0, 240N, 714W, 115, 947, HU

Barely Cat4. May be down to Cat3 in the 11 PM advisory.

[Craters]

Is it just me or does it look like as of 1:00 a.m. this morning that the eye of hurricane Erin is starting to move or wobble and a due Westerly direction again

No it’s not you, Erin has not gained the latitude I was expecting it to gain by this point in time tonight. It appears to be taking the ICON route through the Atlantic Basin so far. Plus it’s getting uncomfortably close to some of the Bahama islands in my humble opinion. If it’s going to make that much anticipated turn to the north, right now would be a great time to do so.

Too soon to say for sure but this is looking like it'll be another resounding victory for the almighty ICON, the only model that predicted anything in the ballpark of the 915mb intensity we saw yesterday and the only model that's consistently forecast a track this far to the west for ~4 days now. At this point I'm honestly starting to trust ICON more than either of the main 2 global models, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a secondary sub-920mb peak tomorrow or Tuesday as Erin reaches the 30ºC+ rocket fuel zone to its north

IMHO, it's picking up where it left off last season, which was an eye-opener for the ICON...