ATL: ERIN - Models

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the simulated IR model for the GFS and CMC, even 12 hours from now they both have much different solutions for strengthen. The CMC shows Erin struggling and never regaining a core while the GFS(as well as the EURO and ICON) show Erin to really ramp up tonight.

This is GFS vs CMC comparison for later tonight:

https://i.ibb.co/DfNQV4DS/Screenshot-20250819-091651-Chrome.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/hJZ9D3V6/Screenshot-20250819-091611-Chrome.jpg

CMC usually is really bad in intensity. I still like it for track etc.

[Jr0d]

Looking at the simulated IR model for the GFS and CMC, even 12 hours from now they both have much different solutions for strengthen. The CMC shows Erin struggling and never regaining a core while the GFS(as well as the EURO and ICON) show Erin to really ramp up tonight.

This is GFS vs CMC comparison for later tonight:

https://i.ibb.co/DfNQV4DS/Screenshot-20250819-091651-Chrome.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/hJZ9D3V6/Screenshot-20250819-091611-Chrome.jpg

CMC usually is really bad in intensity. I still like it for track etc.

It is the outlier for intensity, however I don't think Erin will bomb out again like the ICON and EURO suggest. Hopefully they initialize better next run as they are starting way too strong.

At least the CMC is initialization is more realistic however I do think it is underestimating Erin potential, though I much rather see it's weaker solution prevail.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: like the 0Z this run restrengthens Erin to a peak Thu evening off NC, but by not as much as it gets down to 947 vs 928 on the 0Z:

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 72.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2025 0 25.3N 72.1W 961 79
0000UTC 20.08.2025 12 27.0N 73.1W 960 71
1200UTC 20.08.2025 24 29.0N 73.8W 954 83
0000UTC 21.08.2025 36 31.7N 74.0W 950 84
1200UTC 21.08.2025 48 34.1N 73.1W 949 81
0000UTC 22.08.2025 60 36.1N 70.7W 947 76

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro hour 24 isn’t nearly as strong as the 919 mb of the 6Z as this run gets it down “only” to 945 and is WNW of the 6Z.

[syfr]

NHC's forecast track of 5-6 days ago was remarkably accurate. Erin has moved ~ a degree of longitude west or so if Erin performs as expected but overall, a great job.

[cycloneye]

The Google AI models were very good with Erin.

 https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/1960021603615404313

[tolakram]

The Google AI models were very good with Erin.

 https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/1960021603615404313

I read what he wrote, look at the graphs, and can't find anything he referenced. If he wants to promote this he will need to be specific as the the symbol on the chart and the verification used.

These models (FNV3, GenCast, and GraphCast) even performed better than specialized bias-corrected consensus guidance (HCCA). Impressive!

[cycloneye]

This from Michael Lowery via Dr James Franklin.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1960161276023226655