ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Mark Sudduth has a bunch of cameras out there on Rodanthe



Link: https://youtu.be/cBzCR9kd0is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBzCR9kd0is

[wxman57]

SFMR indicates max winds are around 75 kts now. Note that the wind field is expanding significantly. That means a lower pressure will not translate into increasing wind since the pressure gradient is decreasing. I'm not surprised that the NHC is keeping the winds up, as they never want to indicate weakening for a storm that is affecting land in any way. If they were to issue an advisory saying Erin was now a Cat 1, then people may not heed the warnings along the coast. The primary impact along the East Coast will be from very large waves and a dangerous rip current rather than wind. All squalls should pass offshore.

[Jr0d]

I was checking out the Surfline cams earlier and saw people walking on the beach in Frisco(just south of of the Cape on the OBX). With the roads almost certainly going to be washed out it they will be stuck. The aftermath of no electricity, no way of getting food and fresh water for awhile is something many don't consider when they think they are in a safe place despite being under a mandatory evacuation.

In a few hours the outer rain bands will start to impact the Outer Banks.

Surfline Frisco Cam

[Powellrm]

I’ll find the article again later and link it. Wrightsville beach NC has issued a no swim warning through Friday. They pulled 50 people from rip currents on Monday and a few dozen on Tuesday.

This is such a large storm. How large will it peak at? I’m not surprised at all to see Erin give it a go at some intensification now it’s attempting to organize and exercise out the dry air slots. Warm surface water is great hurricane juice. Not sure how it will be able to sustain strengthening within it being so large and not well organized

[TampaWxLurker]

Now moving due North at 360° per the 11am advisory.

[BobHarlem]

Eye pretty visible now.

[Woofde]

SFMR indicates max winds are around 75 kts now. Note that the wind field is expanding significantly. That means a lower pressure will not translate into increasing wind since the pressure gradient is decreasing. I'm not surprised that the NHC is keeping the winds up, as they never want to indicate weakening for a storm that is affecting land in any way. If they were to issue an advisory saying Erin was now a Cat 1, then people may not heed the warnings along the coast. The primary impact along the East Coast will be from very large waves and a dangerous rip current rather than wind. All squalls should pass offshore.

Recon has found an abundance of flight level winds around 115kts. 90% reduction gives a wind speed of 10-105kts, even if we are very harsh and use a 80% reduction thats still ~90kts. SFMR is far less reliable, no reason to downgrade when plenty of evidence for Cat 2.

[tolakram]

saved loop.

[abajan]

saved loop.

https://i.imgur.com/U5LBq4k.gif

Wow, what a beautiful beast!
One of the best I've seen in a while.

[abajan]

NHC's latest Erin update:



Link: https://youtu.be/vqORM4Hdzps

[Kazmit]

Just a huge storm.

[syfr]

Now to watch for the Eastern turn...

[wxman57]

SFMR indicates max winds are around 75 kts now. Note that the wind field is expanding significantly. That means a lower pressure will not translate into increasing wind since the pressure gradient is decreasing. I'm not surprised that the NHC is keeping the winds up, as they never want to indicate weakening for a storm that is affecting land in any way. If they were to issue an advisory saying Erin was now a Cat 1, then people may not heed the warnings along the coast. The primary impact along the East Coast will be from very large waves and a dangerous rip current rather than wind. All squalls should pass offshore.

Recon has found an abundance of flight level winds around 115kts. 90% reduction gives a wind speed of 10-105kts, even if we are very harsh and use a 80% reduction thats still ~90kts. SFMR is far less reliable, no reason to downgrade when plenty of evidence for Cat 2.

The problem is that those stronger FL winds were nowhere near the eyewall, and those conversions were developed for wind reduction within the eyewall. The plane was actually measuring surface winds, which is better than FL-SFC reductions. Plane didn't find any surface wind much above 75 kts.

I'm measuring a 3hr movement of 012 deg at 11 kts. It's not looking like the sustained TS wind for Cape Hatteras. All squalls should remain offshore. I expect Hatteras to get north wind at 20-30 kts tonight/tomorrow morning. Tides about 3 ft above normal there. No significant rain.

[Woofde]

SFMR indicates max winds are around 75 kts now. Note that the wind field is expanding significantly. That means a lower pressure will not translate into increasing wind since the pressure gradient is decreasing. I'm not surprised that the NHC is keeping the winds up, as they never want to indicate weakening for a storm that is affecting land in any way. If they were to issue an advisory saying Erin was now a Cat 1, then people may not heed the warnings along the coast. The primary impact along the East Coast will be from very large waves and a dangerous rip current rather than wind. All squalls should pass offshore.

Recon has found an abundance of flight level winds around 115kts. 90% reduction gives a wind speed of 10-105kts, even if we are very harsh and use a 80% reduction thats still ~90kts. SFMR is far less reliable, no reason to downgrade when plenty of evidence for Cat 2.

The problem is that those stronger FL winds were nowhere near the eyewall, and those conversions were developed for wind reduction within the eyewall. The plane was actually measuring surface winds, which is better than FL-SFC reductions. Plane didn't find any surface wind much above 75 kts.

I'm measuring a 3hr movement of 012 deg at 11 kts. It's not looking like the sustained TS wind for Cape Hatteras. All squalls should remain offshore. I expect Hatteras to get north wind at 20-30 kts tonight/tomorrow morning. Tides about 3 ft above normal there. No significant rain.

The FL ratio of 90% is for the eyewall yes, but you can still use reductions for the outer vortex at ~80%, provided that section of storm is convectively active(no problem there). It is possible that the ratio is lower than the usual conversion, but given how much the trust in SFMR has been eroded, I can easily see why they would hold the intensity at Cat 2.

[Iceresistance]

What is this microwave pass, is that a portal to another dimension?


https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bNrzw.png

[Zonacane]

What is this microwave pass, is that a portal to another dimension?

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bNrzw.png
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bNrzw.png

That appears to be the infamous triple moat. Been a long time since I’ve seen it, I think it was Ike. But yeah, Erin is a mess

[mrbagyo]

Y'all just hungry hallucinating with Erin's appearance.

[syfr]

Was just watching folks on Ocracoke towing sailboats at anchor in the harbor over to near the ferry docks with a skiff, to ride out Erin.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Erin's appearance is reminding me of Hurricane Allen in the Gulf. Massive storm.

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[storm_in_a_teacup]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/tcOgrYN.gif

Link to full size: https://i.imgur.com/tcOgrYN.gif (right click open in new tab)

Cinnamon roll!

EDIT: oops someone beat me to it...