ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Teban54]

The eye was really recovering earlier, but it seems short-lived.

[Travorum]

Erin has evolved from a cinnamon roll to quite the tasty donut on microwave now, with a moat about 50 miles wide between the eyewall and banding.

[AnnularCane]

I'm getting hungry for something sweet.

[cycloneye]

From the 5 PM discussion about the size.

Erin is an usually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

[mrbagyo]

Erin has evolved from a cinnamon roll to quite the tasty donut on microwave now, with a moat about 50 miles wide between the eyewall and banding.

https://i.imgur.com/OE1hzag.png

https://i.imgur.com/iQohHye.png

Nearly the same structure as Typhoon Winnie of 1997

[Sciencerocks]

[syfr]

Definitely heading NE fast......

NHC nailed this.

[wxman57]

Obs along the NC coast as of 6pm EDT are NE 5-10 kts with light rain. Even Hatteras has only 5 kt wind. Wind field is a bit smaller than predicted, and the storm is tracking just a little farther offshore.

[USTropics]

A full day of visible satellite imagery for Erin. Still in awe of her size and power:

[syfr]

Ocracoke (OBX) live shot. Erin blowin' on by

[72Packer]

Ocracoke (OBX) live shot. Erin blowin' on by

https://i.imgur.com/N1cin5y.jpeg

I hope Ocracoke and silver lake rain like this! This is the most special beach in NC in my opinion. Allom and Pop businesses, great surf fishing, and a great inlet to head out to Gulf Stream. I am told some people actually catch fish!

[Keldeo1997]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=IUNZ2hOyGi4

Erin is trying to copy Winnie with that structure

Dare I say it is annular possible?

[wxman57]

Erin is definitely tracking east of the forecast. I doubt there will be any TS wind on the OBX. Hatteras is currently NE at 10 kts gusting 22 kts. Plane found 70-75 kts in SW quadrant.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1958310428918084012

[abajan]

Erin is definitely tracking east of the forecast. I doubt there will be any TS wind on the OBX. Hatteras is currently NE at 10 kts gusting 22 kts. Plane found 70-75 kts in SW quadrant.

So, in your professional opinion, does this increase the threat to Bermuda? I've actually been wondering all day why their government hasn't upgraded the tropical-storm watch to a tropical-storm warning. Granted, the infrastructure there is legendary but still...

[Jr0d]

Nice to see the storm going further east than expected which hopefully will minimize the over wash on the OBX.

Still at another high tide cycle tomorrow morning to get through.

[wxman57]

Erin is definitely tracking east of the forecast. I doubt there will be any TS wind on the OBX. Hatteras is currently NE at 10 kts gusting 22 kts. Plane found 70-75 kts in SW quadrant.

So, in your professional opinion, does this increase the threat to Bermuda? I've actually been wondering all day why their government hasn't upgraded the tropical-storm watch to a tropical-storm warning. Granted, the infrastructure there is legendary but still...

No, not a Bermuda threat. It's passing too far northwest of Bermuda. Not much for the East U.S. Coast, either, as it looks like it has begun the NE turn early. Hatters has only 10 kts gusting 25 kts. No TS sustained wind on the East Coast.

P.S. Recon found max wind of 75 kts in any quadrant of Erin, regardless of the FL wind. This is measured wind. No need for a FL to surface conversion. This is a Cat 1 hurricane.

[sponger]

She really shot the gap between Obx and Bermuda. Perfect storm track other than flash flooding in the islands. Next one looks to be aiming for Bermuda but with all of that dust behind it it should shut down the ITC for a bit. The pattern looks like October! Going to be an interesting transition to fall.

[Travorum]

Here's the evolution of Erin's structure on microwave from about 6 hours ago to 4 hours ago. The inner eyewall looks to be degrading in the SW and the outer convective ring isn't really consolidating at this point in time. Based on this, I don't see anything notable happening in Erin's future before shear tears her apart in the next day or so. Recon seems to confirm this with central pressure gradually filling in, the latest VDM reporting the eyewall open SW, and the highest winds (both SFMR and FL) 50 miles east of the eye.

[CrazyC83]

She really shot the gap between Obx and Bermuda. Perfect storm track other than flash flooding in the islands. Next one looks to be aiming for Bermuda but with all of that dust behind it it should shut down the ITC for a bit. The pattern looks like October! Going to be an interesting transition to fall.

This is literally the best case scenario ongoing considering the size of the storm and the intensity. It structurally reminds me of Irene at that latitude, just 300 miles farther east. I also agree 95 kt is generous for the intensity despite the pressure. I'd have probably gone with 85 kt, knowing past storms in this situation, even if the SFMR isn't always perfect.