ATL: Ex INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

I don't think there's a point in wasting a designation for a system that:

1) models aren't showing
2) feature that will likely dissipate after a couple of days

post-season they'll probably upgrade it

(watch this system bite me in the ass right after i post this)

IMO respectfully, theres no such thing as a waste of a designation. If a system is a TC it should be classified as one. We've all seen worse designated in the past 2 years.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2025082018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 304W, 30, 1011, DB

[Hurricaneman]

I think this could be one of those systems that fades and regenerates in the western Caribbean or BOC in the long run, could be something to watch beyond day 8 if the GFs is to be believed

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers
and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite-derived surface wind data
depicted that the system does not have a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional
development over the next day or so while the system moves
west-southwestward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical
depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Another andrea i see. But much more impressive convection that's for sure.

[zzzh]

[Sciencerocks]

https://i.imgur.com/n7hVKsq.png

considering how low resulution ascat has this is enough. It has westerly wind and that is whats important

[bahamaswx]

I don't think there's a point in wasting a designation for a system that:

1) models aren't showing
2) feature that will likely dissipate after a couple of days

post-season they'll probably upgrade it

(watch this system bite me in the ass right after i post this)

IMO respectfully, theres no such thing as a waste of a designation. If a system is a TC it should be classified as one. We've all seen worse designated in the past 2 years.

Agreed. How can a designation be "wasted"? It's not like there's a finite amount of them that we need to hoard.

[Travorum]

ASCAT shows a broad circulation with westerly wind but it doesn't seem quite consolidated enough to call a TD/TC at this time. IR imagery as well as the microwave imagery below shows that convection is well displaced from the rotational area, which is around 10N 30W.



IMO this is not quite there yet but has the chance to get there through one more DMAX before shear and SAL tear the wave to shreds. After that there's a chance way down the line that the remnants of this wave can form something in the NW Caribbean/Gulf but that's out in fantasyland right now.

This reminds me a lot of Oscar last year; the precursor wave nearly developed into a TC just west of Cabo Verde (with a somewhat closed circulation and most convection well west of the circulation) before hostile conditions in the MDR destroyed any chance of development, and the wave eventually developed once it got far enough west. It's far to early to speculate on later development, but the early life cycle of this wave is very similar.

[Sciencerocks]

THE LLC IS BECOMING CLEAR EVEN ON NIGHT TIME VISIBLE! Probably a borderline tropical storm.I know most of the models don't like it but it appears at least in the short term that it is saying to hell with them. Don't be shocked if this is upgraded tomorrow morning if it can sustain this convection and is around for a couple of days as a depression or a low end tropical storms.

[Stratton23]

EPS 00z actually got slightly more bullish and some members show a TS moving into the caribbean in 5 days, this wave has really been resilient fighting off shear and alot of dry air

[zhukm29]

Night visible with ASCAT overlay:

[REDHurricane]

Night visible with ASCAT overlay:

https://i.ibb.co/Kzf0xHTK/73032243-99l.gif

Should be enough to designate it a TD now, no?

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show
some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and
a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting to see that the recent Euro ensembles have a decent number of members depicting this system as a Caribbean-cruising type system. Would be interesting to see how 99L behaves over the coming days as it's really behaving as if someone saw it contending with shear and dry air and basically told 99L to just "suck it up"

Also, given its very low starting latitude and eventual WSW dip, assuming this becomes something down the road, I do think that it would have a greater chance of impacting land than Erin and future 90L ever did.

[TallyTracker]

Of all the systems in the Atlantic currently, this has the greatest damage potential. These sleeper waves that don’t crank up until the Caribbean or Gulf are often really bad for someone. Harvey is one of the extreme examples.

[Cpv17]

Of all the systems in the Atlantic currently, this has the greatest damage potential. These sleeper waves that don’t crank up until the Caribbean or Gulf are often really bad for someone. Harvey is one of the extreme examples.

And SST’s in the Caribbean have skyrocketed the past few days as well. Even the Gulf continues to warm.

[Sciencerocks]

Of all the systems in the Atlantic currently, this has the greatest damage potential. These sleeper waves that don’t crank up until the Caribbean or Gulf are often really bad for someone. Harvey is one of the extreme examples.

I agree. This has the greatest potential to stink below the west Atlantic trough and instead head up the backside of it into the gulf...Ivan,

This thing is already a tropical cyclone imo...