ATL: Ex INVEST 99L - Discussion

[zzzh]

[zhukm29]

I think this is a TS.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think we have a winner now.

[chaser1]

I don't see how NHC can avoid initiating this as a TD.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I think this is a TS.

https://i.ibb.co/0p8n0b48/ascat-wind-99-L-202508211153.png

The question will be if the NHC designates this at 11am, going by what UStropics is saying it could be now or never. Imo we've seen more borderline stuff be designated, but the NHC are the ultimate deciders.

[StormWeather]

I guess they aren’t designating this at 11 AM either. It really should be a TC now.

[Kingarabian]

Still hasn't poofed.

[TallyTracker]

I think this is a TS.

https://i.ibb.co/0p8n0b48/ascat-wind-99-L-202508211153.png

That’s low resolution too. The center is probably well-defined by now with that definition on ASCAT.

[Sciencerocks]

Certainly a tropical storm. I can see in post season this being extended back further then Andrea. Probably 36 hours.

[Beef Stew]

Agree with others here- really not sure how this hasn’t been designated. It seems to have fit the criteria for over a day now.

[South Texas Storms]

Still 40% on the early afternoon NHC update.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[zhukm29]

Still 40% on the early afternoon NHC update.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

No mention of the ASCAT pass at all…? Previous outlooks at least mentioned scatterometer data, so this is interesting. :/

[zhukm29]

Still 40% on the early afternoon NHC update.

No mention of the ASCAT pass at all…? Previous outlooks at least mentioned scatterometer data, so this is interesting. :/

Andrea was named and so was Gert last year when models predicted it would die immediately after it was designated. This system has already lasted longer than models predicted so models thinking it could be short lived could lead to a situation where a system lasts longer than a traditional shortie but isn’t designated out of concern that it would be a shortie due to the models. But obviously they are the experts so they have the final say on what gets designated a TC and what isn’t for cases like these.

[TomballEd]

Looks a lot better than 90L on visible satellite. 90L looks like a sharp wave.

[AnnularCane]

At the beginning of this thread the TWO said 99L would reach an unfavorable environment today. Now it's saying this weekend.

[Stratton23]

New burst of convection near the “ center”

[StormTracker]

It's been a while since I've seen this, but oftentimes, waves that come off the West African coast at low latitudes, i.e., 99L, often hitch a ride on the ITCZ, get further west, then break away and go solo to further develop in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico! I'm thinking that's what might happen here...ST

[LadyBug72]

It's been a while since I've seen this, but oftentimes, waves that come off the West African coast at low latitudes, i.e., 99L, often hitch a ride on the ITCZ, get further west, then break away and go solo to further develop in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico! I'm thinking that's what might happen here...ST

That's what Ike did, correct?

[IcyTundra]

It's been a while since I've seen this, but oftentimes, waves that come off the West African coast at low latitudes, i.e., 99L, often hitch a ride on the ITCZ, get further west, then break away and go solo to further develop in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico! I'm thinking that's what might happen here...ST

That's what Ike did, correct?

Ike started further north and was pretty far north of the Caribbean before it began to move to the west south west then west going through Cuba. Ike's track was pretty unusual because you don't really see hurricanes get into the GOM if they start as far north as Ike did. A good example of a low riding wave that was able to get all the way into the GOM due to being weak is Harvey. Harvey was able to strengthen into a TS in the far Eastern Caribbean for a couple of days before it weakened back into an open wave.

[Nimbus]

Its a sharp wave now, and I think the idea that its close enough to the ITCZ to avoid troughs and survive SAL may be correct. We can wait and see if its still a sharp wave or closed low when it reaches -50w?

I wouldn't want to start initiating storm tracks for this one until I had good data.