2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

[LAF92]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

Would this particular storm develop from a Caribbean Gyre or from 99L?

[Stormlover70]

Gfs. Good for squat this far out...

[Stratton23]

I mean yeah its far out, but their are several big factors that definitely could help to spawn something in that part of the basin in early september

[WeatherBoy2000]

I mean yeah its far out, but their are several big factors that definitely could help to spawn something in that part of the basin in early september

The CPC does highlight the western Caribbean/BOC during the first of week of September.

[USTropics]

Beaumont and Lake Charles get smoked by a major hurricane in GFS deep phantasy range. May be the corpse of 99L.

Not a ton of ensemble support.

Would this particular storm develop from a Caribbean Gyre or from 99L?

This is not a CAG scenario (we typically see the 2nd CAG phase of the season late September and October). I've roughly highlighted the wave axis of 99L at every 24 hour timesteps, this is definitely the ghost of 99L that the GFS is developing later in the GOM:


Here is the full 12z run animation sped up:


It's definitely possible given the climatology peak, but the GFS has been just a bit too 'trigger happy' this year (not just in the Atlantic basin either). If some other models start to show development in the Caribbean/GOM I'll buy more in to it. As always, my rule of thumb for hurricane season: follow every tropical wave axis until it crosses land or gets north of 50N.

[otowntiger]

Wow! If the current models are to be believed we are heading into a very quiet next two weeks! A surprise for the heart of an above average season. I’m sure things will change but I gotta admit I’m surprised by what the models are showing, or actually not showing.

[DunedinDave]

Yeah we are definitely trending toward a quiet trend into the season peak. Im a bit surprised.

That said, last year we were dead quiet until Helene in late September. And then things ramped up. The Caribbean doesn’t really start to get its act together until after Sept. 10. Before that, storms are mostly coming from Africa, and outside of Erin, there just haven’t been a lot of pop from that region the last two seasons and most everything has been re-curving.

[Teban54]

All these talks about "very quiet 2 weeks", when the current 7-day outlook is like this, feels a bit ironic IMO. (Yes, I know that not every system here is likely to develop.)

[LarryWx]

All these talks about "very quiet 2 weeks", when the current 7-day outlook is like this, feels a bit ironic IMO. (Yes, I know that not every system here is likely to develop.)

https://i.postimg.cc/x1NPL1Mt/two-atl-7d0.png

In my case, I was saying models were suggesting quiet two weeks starting 8/24, when Erin is done. And quiet doesn’t necessarily mean no activity. Even the Weeklies have ~13 ACE during 8/24-9/7.
Regarding the other 3 systems on the TWO, none show great promise to be big ACE producers at least as of now. So, fairly active in terms of # of potential TCs, but not out of the ordinary for after bell ringing day and likely not all that active in terms of ACE. And the lemon just lost its juice.

[TomballEd]

All these talks about "very quiet 2 weeks", when the current 7-day outlook is like this, feels a bit ironic IMO. (Yes, I know that not every system here is likely to develop.)

https://i.postimg.cc/x1NPL1Mt/two-atl-7d0.png

In my case, I was saying models were suggesting quiet two weeks starting 8/24, when Erin is done. And quiet doesn’t necessarily mean no activity. Even the Weeklies have ~13 ACE during 8/24-9/7.
Regarding the other 3 systems on the TWO, none show great promise to be big ACE producers at least as of now. So, fairly active in terms of # of potential TCs, but not out of the ordinary for after bell ringing day and likely not all that active in terms of ACE. And the lemon just poofed out.

There isn't much support from the ensembles once 90L recurves. A couple redvelop 99L in the Caribbean or Gulf. 30% normal ACE for the first week of September per Euro weeklies. Maybe something develops near the CVs, but there isn't a ton of support for that either. Erin and future Frednand will rack up the ACE, but doesn't see much will follow. Things get busy again if the weeklies are correct mid-September.

[IcyTundra]

Yeah we are definitely trending toward a quiet trend into the season peak. Im a bit surprised.

That said, last year we were dead quiet until Helene in late September. And then things ramped up. The Caribbean doesn’t really start to get its act together until after Sept. 10. Before that, storms are mostly coming from Africa, and outside of Erin, there just haven’t been a lot of pop from that region the last two seasons and most everything has been re-curving.

I think you are forgetting about Beryl.