ATL: Ex INVEST 99L - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Spaghettis getting interesting on 99L

Can you share an image?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1958834698995573160

[N2FSU]

Spaghettis getting interesting on 99L

Can you share an image?

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[TampaWxLurker]

Apparently this is the ultimate "we don't want to waste a name" storm.

Maybe they want to make up for wasting a name on Andrea and Barry and conserve the names for later. Let it get reclassified as a TS in post-season analysis.

[REDHurricane]

Looks like an obvious TS even from the wide Atlantic view lol

[kevin]

Spaghettis getting interesting on 99L

Can you share an image?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250822/fcf4e1307e9efd031a139410b34821fb.jpg


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Definitely not the kind of track you want to see. The big IF seems to be whether this forms at all (or reforms in the ECar).

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become
less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive
environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more
favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week
as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

99L this morning it seems to have a very small circulation and convection at its center.

[TomballEd]

Not a ton of ensemble support, but there are a few members. It stays weak, it doesn't recurve. Interesting Euro 0Z that smacks SE Louisiana a week from Wednesday but one run of 50 doesn't mean much 13 days out.

It is sure to change but some of the 0 and 6Z ensembles showing if it is a late bloomer it may stay S of the Gulf.

Eyeballing vis satellite, it defintely has rotation but using lat/long lines, I don't think there are W winds S of the center. When is the next sensor pass? Been outperforming the models so far, I think more ensembles might start seeing generation in the Caribbean in the next couple of days

[WeatherBoy2000]

Not a ton of ensemble support, but there are a few members. It stays weak, it doesn't recurve. Interesting Euro 0Z that smacks SE Louisiana a week from Wednesday but one run of 50 doesn't mean much 13 days out.

It is sure to change but some of the 0 and 6Z ensembles showing if it is a late bloomer it may stay S of the Gulf.

Eyeballing vis satellite, it defintely has rotation but using lat/long lines, I don't think there are W winds S of the center. When is the next sensor pass? Been outperforming the models so far, I think more ensembles might start seeing generation in the Caribbean in the next couple of days

Interestingly, the NHC has expanded the hatch, saying it may have another shot after Saturday when conditions become less hostile closer to the Antilles. So far models have handled 99l very poorly, if they had been correct this should've been completely strung out a while ago.

[chaser1]

Relative to yesterday, 99L is looking pretty weathered right now. You can see arc clouds being thrown out in at least two quadrants. That said, this system seemingly has a very vigorous mid to low level vorticity. It seems to me that NHC is finally now acknowledging that along with the added wording ("conditions possibly slightly better??) and 40/50 % for development. Still, one can't really question that 99L is truly being impacted by increasingly unfavorable conditions. Guess we'll just have to wait it out and see if it can survive the next 2-3 days.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain
disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system
is expected to move through a less conducive environment into
Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches
the Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain
disorganized. While there is still some chance that a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system
is expected to move through a less conducive environment on
Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches
the Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[AnnularCane]

If they think it might develop more in the future, I wonder why they don't just decrease the 2-day and leave the 7-day alone.

[txwxwatcher]

If they think it might develop more in the future, I wonder why they don't just decrease the 2-day and leave the 7-day alone.

Because even if it’s in a more “slightly” more favorable environment, it’s still not favorable enough to justify more than a 30% chance 7 days from now.

[gib]

Apparently this is the ultimate "we don't want to waste a name" storm.

Maybe they want to make up for wasting a name on Andrea and Barry and conserve the names for later. Let it get reclassified as a TS in post-season analysis.

I don't really understand that. Storms names aren't a precious resource in need of conserving. If a system meets the appropriate criteria it should be named. I do understand there are brief percolations and edge cases, so things aren't always straightforward. But frankly, if I was a forecaster or otherwise involved at the NHC and we completely missed (or ignored!?) a nameable system lasting 24+ hours which needed to be added in post-season analysis, I'd be embarrassed.

It's kind of weird. 99L seemed like a tropical cyclone but its development odds peaked at 50/60. Meanwhile, the haggard wave that is 90L is currently at 80/90 as if development is imminent. It's almost as if they were mixed up. haha

[syfr]

Can you share an image?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250822/fcf4e1307e9efd031a139410b34821fb.jpg


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Definitely not the kind of track you want to see. The big IF seems to be whether this forms at all (or reforms in the ECar).

"It'll go somewhere"

[Nimbus]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250822/fcf4e1307e9efd031a139410b34821fb.jpg


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Definitely not the kind of track you want to see. The big IF seems to be whether this forms at all (or reforms in the ECar).

"It'll go somewhere"

HWFI had this walled north by a digging trough at 96 hours.
Other models have the wave just fading into the coast of South America.
Ridging analysis is easier said than done beyond 72 hours.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1959282754639536205

[StormWeather]

If 99L does form, I could see it getting the Andrea treatment in reanalysis, pushing back the formation time significantly