ATL: Ex INVEST 99L - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Recon tentatively schedule for 99L

NOUS42 KNHC 231525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1125 AM EDT SAT 23 AUGUST 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS - AL99)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 02FFA SURVEY
C. 24/1615Z C. 25/0430Z
D. 13.7N 58.4W D. 14.2N 62.5W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2300Z E. 25/0500Z TO 24/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW LEVEL INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 74
A. 25/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0307A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 14.4N 64.6W
E. 25/1130Z TO 25/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT
AREA AL99 IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

[StormWeather]

Recon tentatively schedule for 99L

NOUS42 KNHC 231525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1125 AM EDT SAT 23 AUGUST 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-084

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR WINDWARD ISLANDS - AL99)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 02FFA SURVEY
C. 24/1615Z C. 25/0430Z
D. 13.7N 58.4W D. 14.2N 62.5W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2300Z E. 25/0500Z TO 24/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW LEVEL INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 74
A. 25/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0307A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 14.4N 64.6W
E. 25/1130Z TO 25/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT
AREA AL99 IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

Glad to see this! Model ensembles are coming alive with this one.

[WaveBreaking]

[WeatherBoy2000]

I believe Dora 2023 was originally an Atlantic invest that failed to develop in the mdr/Caribbean, the same could definitely happen here. It'll depend on how much 99l develops in the short term. If it can develop more in the next few days and gain latitude (both usually happen at the same), then it'll probably remain exclusively an Atlantic interest. However, if it fails to develop enough and remains at a low latitude, then it'll probably crash into CA and perhaps be an epac system instead. The one thing really going against the gfs (and all models really) is how poorly it's been handling 99l in the short term, 99l has constantly outperformed expectations.

[Category5Kaiju]

Mandarin time!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and are beginning to show
signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located
about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system could
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the
Windward and Leeward Islands late on Sunday. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday and
Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on
Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable for
additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Travorum]

NHC with this invest:

[Stratton23]

Convection is healthy and banding features are beginning to develop, I pretty much expect to wake up to TS Gabrielle in the morning

[Weatherwatcher2018]

With the chances now up to 40% what does this mean for Barbados it was at 10 this morning?

[wzrgirl1]

Convection is healthy and banding features are beginning to develop, I pretty much expect to wake up to TS Gabrielle in the morning

I think you may be jumping the gun just a little bit. Still has a bit to go, or maybe not. Seriously though, watching intently from southeast Florida, has definitely piqued my interest.

[Stratton23]

wzrgirl1 I could be, but id at least say the odds of this become a named storm within the next 24-36 hours are pretty good, we will see though, its for sure been quite the resilient system though

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2025082400, , BEST, 0, 123N, 520W, 30, 1010, DB

[abajan]

0Z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2025082400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 521W, 35, 1010, DB

Whoa mama!

[Stratton23]

If im reading that correctly, that highlighted 35 would possibly suggest this may be already a TD ?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hey Storm2k Family and past Palm Beach forum members before that!
I went from Northeast Carolina to West Coast Florida (Treasure Island & Clearwater) and I keep moving into storm zones.
2 months ago I moved down to Cancun, Mexico, so I'll be able to chime in on storm impacts from here now!
We'll see if this season provides a "Welcome to MX" storm. --Possibly sooner than later with Gabby's evolution.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well, if we already have Gabrielle, that would seem to indicate a stronger storm sooner, which would be more likely to make connections and be pulled northward by any front opportunities. However, that puts the islands in danger first with a potentially stronger storm than expected in just a few short days.

[Hurricane2022]

Not Gabrielle yet.
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1959421138263785849

[floridasun]

looking sat pic look like getting shear from west it not yet ts

[wzrgirl1]

0Z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2025082400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 521W, 35, 1010, DB

Whoa mama!

Does this mean that this will be declared a tropical depression at 11 o’clock?

[StormWeather]

0Z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2025082400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 521W, 35, 1010, DB

Whoa mama!

Does this mean that this will be declared a tropical depression at 11 o’clock?

No circulation exists.

No circulation = no TC

[WeatherBoy2000]

0Z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2025082400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 521W, 35, 1010, DB

Whoa mama!

Does this mean that this will be declared a tropical depression at 11 o’clock?

Nothing to indicate an LLC yet, just a strong tropical wave.