ATL: FERNAND - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormWeather]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located in the southwestern Atlantic, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[TomballEd]

I do see the center but almost all the deeper convection is N and NE of 27N, 61.5W, my eyeball center. That center will chase that convection to the N and NE. I have serious doubts it becomes a hurricane.

[mitchell]

I still don’t understand why they don’t use the PTC designation and get those TS Watches out.

For where?

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2025082418, , BEST, 0, 313N, 600W, 40, 1009, TS

[weeniepatrol]

Looks significantly healthier.

[StormWeather]

What’s the possibility that this becomes a short-lived hurricane?

[zzzh]

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/a8LAu9J.png

Is that a proto-core I see?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

AL, 06, 2025082500, 01, CARQ, 0, 321N, 596W, 45, 1007, TS, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 110, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 25, 10, FERNAND, M

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm actually kinda glad the tropics are slowly getting quiet again, I've got so much to do outside in the yard. Gonna check here again after the first week of September, to see if stuff starts ramping up after this teaser we got. So incredibly thankful we haven't had any USA landfalls yet.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

The overnight scatterometer data I saw had 30 kts SE of the exposed center. Not sure what data NHC sees to say it is strengthening. Looks close to being a remnant low now.

[Woofde]

Fernand is taking his clothes off .

For real though that is some big time decoupling, hard to see it recovering.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Hey folks. Rising from the dead. A small comeback in the next few hours adding a little bonus ACE.

From 11 AM discussion:

the storm is
expected to move over a warm eddy later this afternoon and evening,
and SHIPS suggests a short period of increased upper-level
divergence as well. These conditions could allow redevelopment of
deep convection, keeping Fernand going as a tropical cyclone for a
bit longer. In fact, both the GFS and ECWMF show this
redevelopment, along with an increase in Fernand's maximum winds by
tomorrow morning.

[kevin]

Still going strong, kinda impressive for a weak storm that was expected to already be post-tropical about 12 hours ago in advisories from yesterday morning and the day before. NHC now shows another 24 hours as a TC before the transition to post-tropical. This could add another ~0.6 ACE to its current value of 2.3. Even with its current ACE, Fernand is the second most-contributing ACE storm of the Atlantic season so far. In other words, Erin has done pretty much all the heavy lifting so far .

[cycloneye]

The last straw.