ATL: FERNAND - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 61.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

The trough of low pressure (AL90) located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda has become better organized today. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
center during the past couple of hours, with a central pressure of
about 1010 mb. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt, based on
earlier scatterometer data which had a few believable
tropical-storm-force wind vectors, and a Dvorak classification of
35 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion is north or 010/13 kt. A north-northeastward
motion is anticipated during the next couple of days with a slow
increase in forward speed due to Fernand moving around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely
accelerate to the northeast thereafter as the system gets caught up
in faster mid-latitude flow, well to the southeast of Newfoundland.
The global models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance, closest to the
HFIP Corrected- Consensus Model (HCCA).

Fernand has about 48 hours over warm waters within generally light
shear to intensify. There is a fair bit of mid-level dry air,
however, which could hinder any rapid strengthening, so the
intensity forecast will just show a more gradual increase in winds.
All of the models peak the system as an upper-end tropical storm or
category 1 hurricane, and the NHC forecast is just shy of a
hurricane as a peak. After Monday, Fernand should weaken due
to the influences of cooler waters and increasing shear, and the
storm will likely become post-tropical in 3-4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 27.2N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 31.4N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 35.8N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 41.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

...FERNAND MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 61.2W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 23 2025

Fernand is still trying to become better organized this evening. A
recent scatterometer pass around 0052 UTC depicted a peak wind speed
around 31 kt, southeast of the center. Latest satellite images show
there has been a recent burst in the last few hours over the
low-level center, although some of the outer rain bands have
diminished. Subjective and objective intensity estimates remain
around 35-40 kt. Using a blend of the estimates and recent satellite
trends, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The lastest motion is north-northeast at 015/14. Fernand is being
steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge, which will
cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the next few
days. The system will then turn more northeastward within the flow
between the ridge and an approaching trough, and accelerate over the
north Atlantic. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Fernand is within a favorable environment for intensification, with
warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. However, models
depict some mid-level dry air near it, which may hinder the
strengthening rate and structure. The intensity guidance has come
down slightly this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast follows those
trends with a peak intensity now at 55 kt, on the higher end of the
guidance envelope. The storm should begin to weaken as SSTs cool and
wind shear increases by day 3, and the system will likely become
post-tropical by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 28.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 30.6N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 32.9N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 35.0N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 37.4N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 40.0N 55.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 43.0N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 49.0N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 60.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Convection associated with Fernand remains poorly organized this
morning, with a cluster near and just west of the center and a very
ragged outer band in the northern semicircle. The various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain in
the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 015/13 kt. As mentioned previously, Fernand
is being steered around the western edge of the subtropical ridge,
which will cause the storm to move north-northeastward during the
next day or two. The system will then turn more northeastward and
accelerate within the mid-latitude westerly flow between the ridge
and an approaching trough. While the model guidance remains in good
agreement with this scenario, the guidance envelop has shifted a
little to the east since the previous advisory, Thus, the new
forecast track is a little east of the previous track.

Fernand should remain over warm sea surface temperatures and in
a light shear environment for the next 36 h or so. However,
mid-level dry air near the cyclone may slow the development. The
intensity guidance has again trended downward, and the new forecast
peak intensity of 50 kt is near the upper edge of the guidance.
After 36 h, cooler water, increasing shear, and increased dry-air
entrainment should cause weakening, and Fernand is now forecast to
become post-tropical by 72 hr. The global models are in good
agreement that the system should degenerate to a trough by 96 h,
and the official forecast shows dissipation by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 29.7N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 31.3N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 33.6N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 35.7N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 38.2N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 40.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 44.3N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA HEADED TOWARD THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand has become a bit better organized during the past few
hours. Convection has reformed with a banding pattern around the
center, with some expanding outflow. Satellite intensity estimates
are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will remain
35 kt, though some of the objective estimates have recently
increased.

The storm has been moving through an environment that is somewhat
drier with more shear than anticipated. Consequently, Fernand
has changed little overnight. The environment still should support
some gradual strengthening, which is the general idea of the model
guidance. The new NHC forecast is about the same as the last one,
with a similar peak occuring on Monday, perhaps a bit sooner than
earlier thinking. Decreasing SSTs and increasing shear should
cause weakening later on Tuesday, with extratropical transition
anticipated early Wednesday and a quick dissipation on Thursday.

The initial motion is 020/13 kt. Fernand is forecast to move
on this general course for the next couple of days around the
northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. The storm will likely
be embedded in the mid-latitude flow by late Tuesday, causing a
faster track to the northeast. While the model guidance remains in
good agreement, guidance has been shifting eastward to time, which
the Google Deep Mind (GDMI) model first sniffed out yesterday. The
new NHC forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope
and is east of the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 31.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 32.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 34.8N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 36.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 39.3N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 42.0N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 44.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[StormWeather]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 59.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand continues to become better organized on satellite imagery
with a more circular central dense overcast and a curved banding
feature in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates
are slightly higher, so the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt.
Further intensification is anticipated during the next day or so
while Fernand remains in a warm water and light shear environment,
tempered by plentiful environmental dry air. Around Tuesday, shear
should increase, along with a decrease in SSTs. This should cause
weakening, and the storm will likely become post- tropical on
Wednesday. No significant change to the previous forecast was made,
and the latest NHC prediction is close to a blend of the previous
one and the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is 025/11 kt. The storm is likely to move to the
north-northeast then northeast at a faster forward speed during the
next day or two as the steering flow gradually shifts from the
subtropical ridge to the mid-latitude southwesterlies. There is
more spread in the model guidance than the last cycle, seemingly due
to the forecast depth of the storm. Generally the models are a
little slower, perhaps because Fernand isn't expected to be as
strong (and presumably won't feel faster upper-level flow as much).
The new NHC forecast follows the trend of the guidance, a bit slower
than the past advisory, and just south of the HFIP Corrected
Consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.8N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 33.2N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 35.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 43.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[StormWeather]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

...FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 59.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025

Fernand continues to produce bursts of convection near the low-level
center, with cold cloud tops notes in satellite images. Microwave
imagery shows an improving structure with curved banding and a small
inner core trying to become established. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range between 40 to 50 kt. Using a
blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

The initial motion remains north-northeast at an estimated motion of
025/11 kt. The system is being steered around the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge. This north-northeast to northeast motion is
anticipated throughout the forecast period as the system is steered
around the ridge and into the mid-latitude southwesterlies, with an
increase is forward speed. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the
previous, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google
DeepMind aids.

Fernand is forecast to gradually strengthen during the 12-24h, as
the system remains over warm water and light wind shear. However,
there is some drier mid-level air depicted via satellite and latest
SHIPS guidance, which may hinder convective organization at times.
By late Monday or Tuesday, vertical wind shear begins to increase
and sea surface temperatures decrease significantly along the
forecast track. This will cause the system to weaken, and become
post-tropical on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, and remains near the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 32.6N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 34.0N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 38.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 44.4N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

Fernand continues to produce a concentrated area of convection
near and to the south of the center, although recent AMSR2 and GMI
microwave overpasses show some separation between the center and
the convection. There are also ragged outer convective bands in
the northeastern semicircle. The various satellite intensity
estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and they have not changed much
during the past 6 h. Based on this, the initial intensity remains
45 kt.

The initial motion remains north-northeast or 025/10 kt. Fernand is
being steered around the western periphery of the subtropical
ridge and is moving into the southern portion of the mid-latitude
westerlies. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion
is expected with some increase in forward speed during the
remainder of the cyclone's life. The latest track guidance has
shifted a little to the left or northwest, and the new forecast
track thus lies a little to the left of the previous forecast.
Overall, the new forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA
corrected consensus.

Fernand is almost out of time to strengthen. It is approaching an
area of increasing shear, and after 12 h sea surface temperatures
decrease along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast will
show a little more strengthening today, followed by a weakening
trend as Fernand moves into the less favorable environment. The
cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 48 h over cold water,
and it is now forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h in
agreement with the global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 33.7N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 35.3N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 40.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 43.6N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATEDn

[StormWeather]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 57.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

A large burst of persistent convection remains in the southeastern
quadrant of Fernand, with 1-minute GOES-19 visible imagery
suggesting that the low-level center is positioned on the
northwestern edge of the burst. Scatterometer data indicate that
the maximum winds have increased to about 50 kt, so that will be
the initial intensity. Little change in strength is anticipated
today, followed by weakening commencing tomorrow due to Fernand
reaching cooler waters with increasing shear. The model envelope
is fairly narrow, and the new NHC intensity forecast is quite
similar to the previous one and the model consensus.

The initial motion is north-northeast or 025/12 kt. A general
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some
increase in forward speed during the remainder of the cyclone's
life due to steering from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude
trough. There are some differences on whether Fernand is picked up
by the trough, like the GFS solution, or more shunted to the
southeast, displayed by the ECMWF/Google Deep Mind solutions. The
official forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope,
closer to the latter models and the previous NHC forecast.
Post-tropical transition is expected on Wednesday due to cold
waters, with a fast dissipation by Thursday as the weak cyclone
opens up into a trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 34.2N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 36.0N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 38.5N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 44.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND FORECAST TO START WEAKENING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 57.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

The center of Fernand has become exposed this afternoon with
bursting convection continuing well south of the center. The
initial intensity will remain 50 kt on this package per continuity
from earlier scatterometer winds, but if convection doesn't
redevelop soon near the center, this is probably a generous
estimate. Weakening should begin soon regardless with increasing
shear and cooler waters in the path of the storm. Fernand is
forecast to become post-tropical early on Wednesday due to a lack of
convection, but it wouldn't be surprising if that transition
happened sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an
update of the previous one, near the model consensus.

The initial motion is north-northeast or 030/12 kt. A general
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some
increase in speed during the rest of Fernand's life due to steering
from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough. Models are
trending toward a slower and rightward solution, suggesting a weaker
storm will not feel the approaching mid-latitude trough as much.
The new official forecast is shifted south of the previous one,
closer to the Google Deep Mind model, which has had a very good
performance so far for this cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 35.3N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

...FERNAND BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 56.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

Fernand has lost organization over the past several hours. The
center is completely exposed, and convection is confined to a small
area south of the center due to northerly vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity is lowered a little to 45 kt, which lies near the
high end of the latest satellite estimates. This intensity value is
in good agreement with a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed 35 to
40 kt winds on the eastern side of the system. Continued weakening
is expected due to sharply cooler waters, dry air, and moderate to
strong shear. Fernand will likely become post-tropical in about 24
hours, if not sooner, and is expected to open into a trough in a
couple of days.

The storm is moving northeastward at 11 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion in the flow between a subtropical high to its
east and a large trough to the west is expected until Fernand
dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one,
and lies near the Google Deep Mind and HCCA models, which have been
performing well for this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 36.1N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 37.5N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 39.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1200Z 41.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 55.2W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

Fernand continues to be a sheared cyclone this morning. Satellite
images show the low-level center exposed to the north of an area of
dissipating convection with warming cloud tops. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates are between 30 to 44 kt.
Given the satellite trends, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for
this advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward or 040/12 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is expected later today within the flow between
a subtropical high to its east and an approaching trough to the
west. The NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right, and
lies between the Google Deep Mind and HCCA corrected consensus.

Fernand is expected to continue weakening, as satellite water vapor
imagery depicts the system is moving into a drier environment and
SHIPS mid-level RH values remain below 50 percent. The storm is also
moving over cooler sea surface temperatures, and into higher wind
shear along the forecast track. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous, which shows gradual weakening as the system
spins down, and Fernand will likely become post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Wednesday. The cyclone is expected to open into a
trough by 48 h and dissipate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 37.0N 55.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 38.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 39.9N 50.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1800Z 41.5N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND WEAKENING BUT COULD MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 54.6W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

Fernand has not produced deep convection near its center since
about 2 AM. Based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Fernand is moving over
a cool eddy of about 25 degrees Celsius in the Gulf Stream, which
could explain its loss of convection. However, the storm is
expected to move over a warm eddy later this afternoon and evening,
and SHIPS suggests a short period of increased upper-level
divergence as well. These conditions could allow redevelopment of
deep convection, keeping Fernand going as a tropical cyclone for a
bit longer. In fact, both the GFS and ECWMF show this
redevelopment, along with an increase in Fernand's maximum winds by
tomorrow morning. While confidence in this scenario is not
particularly high, the NHC forecast has been modified to show the
potential of slight restrengthening over the next 24 hours, with
post-tropical transition not occurring until 36 hours. Most of the
global models show the circulation opening up into a trough by 48
hours, and that is when dissipation is shown in the official
forecast.

The initial motion is northeastward, or 040/11 kt. A continued
northeastward motion is expected until Fernand dissipates, and no
significant changes were made to the official track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 37.6N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 38.9N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 40.4N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 41.9N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND NOT DONE QUITE YET...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

As mentioned this morning, there was a possibility of deep
convection redeveloping near Fernand's center, and that indeed has
happened. Fernand has therefore maintained tropical cyclone status,
and based on earlier ASCAT data which showed wind of 30-35 kt, the
initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is northeastward, or 045/10 kt. An acceleration
toward the east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days
as Fernand becomes more fully embedded in the mid-latitude westerly
flow. In the short term, Fernand will be moving over a relative
warm eddy of the Gulf Stream, while also remaining in an environment
of low shear. Based on the latest GFS and ECMWF fields, as well as
the HCCA guidance, some slight strengthening appears possible during
the next day or so. This is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast. Post-tropical transition is predicted by 36 hours, if not
sooner, when the cyclone should finally struggle to maintain
convection over colder waters. The post-tropical cyclone may be
able to maintain its integrity through 48 hours, so an additional
forecast point was added to the official forecast at that time. The
GFS and ECWMF are in very good agreement that the low should open up
into a trough by 60 hours (Thursday night).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 38.1N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 38.8N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 40.1N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 41.8N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/1800Z 43.7N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

...FERNAND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 52.0W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 26 2025

The deep convection near Fernand's center has persisted through the
evening. Overnight scatterometer data showed reliable wind vectors
up to 39 kt and the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt based on
these data.

Fernand is moving at an estimated 50/10 kt. The storm is expected
to accelerate east-northeastward during the next couple of days as
it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. Minor updates have been
made to the latest NHC track forecast track which lies near the
corrected consensus model, HCCA. Simulated satellite imagery from
global models suggest that Fernand will lose its deep convection in
the next day or so. Model guidance holds Fernand generally steady
in intensity while it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone.
The official intensity forecast continues to show Fernand becoming
post-tropical by 36 hours and opening into a trough by late this
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 38.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 39.3N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 41.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 42.9N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0000Z 44.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...LOPSIDED FERNAND JOGGING A LITTLE EASTWARD...
...STILL FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 50.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

Fernand continues to sputter along as a lopsided tropical storm,
producing deep convection primarily along its southern semicircle.
This convective activity has not been particularly well organized on
either geostationary or microwave satellite images. In fact,
overnight Proxy-Vis satellite imagery suggests this convective
activity has been stretching the low-level vortex of the tropical
cyclone, making it somewhat elongated. Satellite intensity estimates
this morning have a wide range between 30 kt to 51 kt. Out of
deference to the earlier scatterometer data, Fernand's initial
intensity remains 40 kt this advisory, which is also roughly in the
middle of the various estimates.

The ongoing deep convection appears to be impacting Fernand's
short-term motion, which is east of the prior forecast track, moving
at an estimated 080/10 kt. This motion could persist a little longer
given the tropical cyclone's ongoing convective asymmetry. Still,
Fernand is expected to resume an accelerating east-northeastward
motion later today, caught up in deep-layer southwesterly flow
downstream of a large mid-latitude trough over eastern North
America. Given the short-term motion, the track guidance has shifted
a little east of the prior cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast
has elected to go along the eastern edge of this track envelope,
close to the latest HCCA and EC-AIFS solutions. The ongoing deep
convection has also bought Fernand a little more time as a tropical
cyclone, though probably only another 24 hours since the cyclone
will soon cross a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient as it
passes the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The NHC intensity forecast
shows Fernand becoming post-tropical in about 24 h, and opening up
into a trough and dissipating in 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 38.3N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 39.3N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 41.3N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 28/1800Z 43.3N 38.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/0600Z 45.2N 30.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 49.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

Fernand's center is exposed to the west of a remaining band of deep
convection, with the circulation itself a bit elongated. Satellite
intensity estimates still encompass a rather large range--from 30
kt to about 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, pending
an ASCAT pass which we may not receive until after this advisory is
released.

Since last evening, convection appears to have had a stronger
influence on Fernand's motion compared to the prevailing steering
flow. The 12-hour average motion has been eastward, or 085 degrees
at 10 kt. Assuming the convective influences lessen, the track
models insist that Fernand should resume an acceleration toward the
east-northeast very soon, with that motion continuing for the next
day or two. Fernand is currently over sea surface temperatures of
about 25 degrees Celsius, but it is expected to move over the north
wall of the Gulf Stream later today, with SSTs falling to 23-24
degrees Celsius by this evening. These cooler waters should cause
Fernand's deep convection to gradually decay through the remainder
of the day, and the cyclone could become post-tropical as early as
tonight. Winds are likely to remain at gale force, largely due to
the system's increasing forward speed. Dissipation--when the
circulation opens up into a trough--is likely in 36-48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 38.4N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 39.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 41.6N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/0000Z 43.6N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fernand Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1150 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND A LITTLE STRONGER...

Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Fernand has
strengthened slightly, and maximum sustained winds are now near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

No updates are required to the recently issued forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1150 AM AST...1550 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 47.4W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES






Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
500 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

Fernand's interaction with a nearby upper-level trough has caused
the cloud pattern to look more like an extratropical cyclone, with
a broad cirrus shield northeast of the center and some leftover
shallow-topped convection in a band within the eastern semicircle.
Still, the system remains non frontal and is holding onto tropical
cyclone status. Maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt based on
ASCAT-C data from around 10 am this morning.

The initial motion is now faster toward the northeast, or 070
degrees at 13 kt. Additional acceleration toward the northeast or
east-northeast is expected during the next day or so with Fernand
now well embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow. The storm is now
passing across the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and sea surface
temperatures beneath the circulation should be down to about 23
degrees Celsius in 12 hours. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
images suggest that convection should continue to wane over these
colder waters, and Fernand is expected to become post-tropical by
early Thursday. Despite the transition, Fernand is forecast to
maintain gale-force winds, even after it opens up into a trough and
dissipates by Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 39.3N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 40.6N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fernand Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

...FERNAND LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 45.5W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 27 2025

The system is producing minimal shower activity at this time, with
only some shallow- to mid-level topped convection and some isolated
deeper cells in a band over the eastern semicircle. In fact, the
cyclone lacks enough convection to be classified by the Dvorak
technique. Unless significant shower and thunderstorm activity
redevelops in the circulation, which seems unlikely due to cooler
ocean waters, Fernand will become a post-tropical cyclone on
Thursday. In spite of its unimpressive cloud appearance, recent
ASCAT-C scatterometer measurements showed peak surface winds of
around 45 kt over the southern part of Fernand's circulation. Some
slight spin-down is likely during the next 24 hours, but the system
is expected to maintain gale-force winds even after it opens up into
a trough by Thursday night or early Friday.

Fernand is accelerating east-northeastward with the motion now
around 060/16 kt. The cyclone should continue to move faster in
about the same direction, within the mid-latitude
west-southwesterly flow ahead of a short-wave trough, until
post-tropical transition. The official forecast is very close to
the dynamical track model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 40.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 41.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0000Z 43.7N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernand Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
900 AM GMT Thu Aug 28 2025

...FERNAND BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.2N 42.9W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernand Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025
900 AM GMT Thu Aug 28 2025

It has now been more than 12 hours since Fernand has produced what
could be considered organized deep convection near its center, and
now that the cyclone has moved north of the Gulf Stream, this
activity is very unlikely to come back. Therefore, Fernand is now
considered a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the final NHC
advisory on the system. The maximum sustained winds have been
lowered to 40 kt, assuming there has been some spin-down of the
winds relative to the earlier scatterometer data, given the lack of
deep convection. The system is continuing to accelerate
east-northeastward, now at 060/20 kt, and this motion should
continue until the post-tropical cyclone opens up into a trough in
about 24-36 hours. This system will ultimately become absorbed by a
larger mid-latitude cyclone forecast to develop in the far North
Atlantic.

Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 41.2N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 28/1800Z 42.7N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0600Z 44.9N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED