EPAC: INVEST 93E - Discussion (40/70)

[Subtrop]

EP, 93, 2025082812, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1120W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, ep722025 to ep932025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932025.dat

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Good potential on this being a major hurricane. Tracking W/WNW beneath a strong ridge before it reaches cooler waters.

[cycloneye]

Good potential on this being a major hurricane. Tracking W/WNW beneath a strong ridge before it reaches cooler waters.

Dont think will be a major cane because is almost at 15N and will reach the cooler waters more faster.

EP, 93, 2025082818, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1129W, 20, 1010, DB

[Kingarabian]

Good potential on this being a major hurricane. Tracking W/WNW beneath a strong ridge before it reaches cooler waters.

Dont think will be a major cane because is almost at 15N and will reach the cooler waters more faster.

EP, 93, 2025082818, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1129W, 20, 1010, DB

https://i.imgur.com/dhQmgVn.png

GFS has the NW climb stopping and the heading becoming more WNW. SST's should be between 27C to 26C so long it remains south of 17.5N. Because itll be beneath a sub tropical and there should be light easterly shear this can become a classic buzzsaw EPAC major.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend while the
system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the central
to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian They relocated more south the 00z position and now it can be a major cane.

EP, 93, 2025082900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1136W, 20, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while moving west-northwestward or westward at
around 10 mph across the central to western part of the eastern
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian They relocated more south the 00z position and now it can be a major cane.

EP, 93, 2025082900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1136W, 20, 1010, DB

https://i.imgur.com/IHVPWVE.png

GFS also showed a WSW dip. Those dips are associated with stronger systems.

[cycloneye]

Westward direction is the spaghetti models consensus, but on intensity, they don't reach mayor cane status.

[TomballEd]

Honolulu is at 21/158 This could be the one. The water near Hawaii is not frigid.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week
while moving west-northwestward or westward at around 10 mph across
the central to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Complex steering as it nears Hawaii compared to normal. Also shear favorability is iffy. Likely.to be a weak system by then.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Western East Pacific (EP93):
A weak area of low pressure located about 800 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while moving
west-northwestward or westward at around 10 mph across the central
to western part of the eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.