2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Feels eerily reminiscent to last year.... early Category 5, followed by lull at peak season before a chaotic late-September/October.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/frontierfcst/status/1961121576687919302

[Travorum]

Feels eerily reminiscent to last year.... early Category 5, followed by lull at peak season before a chaotic late-September/October.

Including a wave after that early Category 5 that initially looks like it has potential to develop into something serious only to bust due in part due to the storm in front of it overperforming.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1961156185752494304

[Hurricaneman]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1961156185752494304

I have a feeling it’s going to be nasty from mid September into mid October based on it seems like this year is seemingly similar to last year

[Category5Kaiju]

With what's being talked about currently, it really hammers down the idea of how extraordinary 1933 was. Looking at that season's timeline, this was a highly active Atlantic hurricane season that also pretty much had no major lulls in activity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With what's being talked about currently, it really hammers down the idea of how extraordinary 1933 was. Looking at that season's timeline, this was a highly active Atlantic hurricane season that also pretty much had no major lulls in activity.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/skfl16tnbwtp0n3pko8zknzjko5xd5h.png

What's crazy is that 1933 was almost certainly much more active than that. It probably had more named storms than 2020.

[lsuhurricane]

Thought this was a really good observation by Cantor and certainly a key factor that will impact the remainder of the season. A more northern ITCZ really benefits the Gulf and Caribbean especially as the MJO rotates back.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1960438858799309132

[psyclone]

Mid September to mid October is vastly more scary than mid August to mid September. In the past a dead looking Atlantic at the end of August would trigger plenty of season cancel posts....but not anymore...we're on to this pattern. Beware the late season chicanery. The Gulf and Caribbean continue to build OHC. Something will probably happen...most likely after 9-10 peak climo