Tropical Wave over the far Eastern Atlantic (10/60)

[LAF92]

00z ICON has the storm taking a pronounced WSW dip in the western MDR around the September 7-8 timeframe. There seems to be roughly 10 degrees of longitude between where this happens and the Lesser Antilles, but assuming this storm heads due west going forward, it would inevitably crash into the islands.

And the 00z gfs has a strengthening hurricane at the same timeframe but slings at NW out to sea. So our 2 options are a weaker system more west and a stronger system more North and out to sea it looks like so far.

[LarryWx]

Some other 0Z models:

-Like for the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET text has no TC. I’ll see how the maps look when they come out. The 12Z was kind of wacky with two weak lows.

-CMC again has a possible TD in the E MDR that weakens later.

-0Z JMA goes out only 72 hours.

-So, Icon, GFS, UKMET, and CMC are fairly similar at 0Z to their respective 12Z runs.
Next up is the all-knowing Euro!

[Category5Kaiju]

It looked like a safe recurve. But then this happens.

[LarryWx]

:eek: It looked like a safe recurve. But then this happens.

https://i.imgur.com/9HLWHqI.png

For sanity’s sake, I hope this way out in fantasyland portion of the 0Z GFS misses the NE US so that people don’t start tweeting about this as if it had credibility.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows a hurricane impact to New England from the Southeast, I can guarantee you that won’t happen

[LarryWx]

The 0zGFS shows a hurricane impact to New England from the Southeast, I can guarantee you that won’t happen

Fortunately for sanity’s sake, it’s sharply recurving just in time to only give a glancing blow to Cape Cod instead of a landfall that would cause Twitter-land to go gaga about a day 16 op run.

[ouragans]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at
around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
throughout the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form later this week or next weekend.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at
around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
throughout the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Beve

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

06z GFS with a near-landfall on Bermuda at 14 days. I have plans that weekend

[MetroMike]

The 0z Euro barely develops a circulation and fizzles it out in short order. Seeing some hostile conditions still?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 0z Euro barely develops a circulation and fizzles it out in short order. Seeing some hostile conditions still?

Euro is never reliable for TC genesis, much better for track.

[cycloneye]

Not looking bad.

[Category5Kaiju]

One thing that gives me a bit of pause this early regarding saying that this will be "Erin 2.0" in terms of track is that this AOI seems to be starting at a lower latitude than Erin did.

Will be interesting to see how it develops in the short-term, because the more south it is as it travels west, the more I'd be inclined to believe that it might not be total fish food in the end.

[Hugo1989]

One thing that gives me a bit of pause this early regarding saying that this will be "Erin 2.0" in terms of track is that this AOI seems to be starting at a lower latitude than Erin did.

Will be interesting to see how it develops in the short-term, because the more south it is as it travels west, the more I'd be inclined to believe that it might not be total fish food in the end.

Is this will be Erin 2.0 in terms of track, then Greater Antilles should monitor closely this system. Erin emerged in a higher lat and moved almost due west until reach the Lesser Antilles. I think it passed around 175 miles from San Juan if anyone can confirm.

[cycloneye]

12z ICON goes gangbusters.

[LAF92]

12z ICON goes gangbusters.

https://i.imgur.com/fOva7ut.gif

With the dive WSW continuing

[StormWeather]

This is more reminiscent of Irma than Erin ever was. Don’t get me wrong, this may not even form at all, or if it does form its track could be significantly more different than when the models are showing.

This has come off of Africa further south than Erin (could definitely work in its favor)

What’s the high pressure situation?

[StormWeather]

This is more reminiscent of Irma than Erin ever was. Don’t get me wrong, this may not even form at all, or if it does form its track could be significantly more different than when the models are showing.

This has come off of Africa further south than Erin (could definitely work in its favor)

What’s the high pressure situation?

I’m also going to throw the disclaimer out there that I’m not suggesting every single system is like Irma. I never intend for it to sound like that.

I’m just looking at the model runs here and now vs what was going on when the models were working out what would become Irma.

Ive been trying to look at similarities in the pattern recently that could compare to the pattern that lead to Irma.

[Weathertracker96]

This is more reminiscent of Irma than Erin ever was. Don’t get me wrong, this may not even form at all, or if it does form its track could be significantly more different than when the models are showing.

This has come off of Africa further south than Erin (could definitely work in its favor)

What’s the high pressure situation?

I’m also going to throw the disclaimer out there that I’m not suggesting every single system is like Irma. I never intend for it to sound like that.

I’m just looking at the model runs here and now vs what was going on when the models were working out what would become Irma.

Ive been trying to look at similarities in the pattern recently that could compare to the pattern that lead to Irma.

I understand. Will be interesting to watch how the pattern evolves over the coming days

[kevin]

12z ICON still travelling a hair south of west at +180hr. Still lots of possibilities, but this would be a very scary solution.