ATL: Ex-INVEST 91L - Models

[Kingarabian]

GFS rolling

[Teban54]

Hmm, why is 12z GFS suddenly leaning towards competing vorts? This hasn't been the case in earlier runs or other models.

[Gums]

Agree, flauderdal, and the AI projection.

I bet cycloneye is watching closely, huh?

Gums sends...

[SFLcane]

Just some specuation on my part but I had not noticed this but the long range eps does have some members bending west ala gfs. Those westward members might smooth out in time just north of the caribbean

https://i.postimg.cc/4Nh9XntD/nnn.jpg

This EPS and other runs still strongly favor either a safe recurve from Conus or it staying weak or dissipating for those that stay further south and go into or near the Caribbean. So, there’s still a long ways to go before this would possibly be considered a significant threat to the Conus. Also, the threat is currently still higher for the NE Caribbean due to those members that stay further S. I’m assuming you largely agree with all of this. If not, please tell me where you disagree.

But even so, Erin did come in 200 miles/3 degrees of longitude further W than forecasted by the NHC and models 4 days earlier.

FYI.. gfs is aleady correcting south to euro on the 12z. I think the euro has that southern track locked in but we will see.

[kevin]

12z GFS with a big shift south in the short-term compared to 06z, 2 full degrees at +72 hours.

[SFLcane]

[kevin]

Also about 2.5 degrees farther east than 06z at +84 hrs. So far the 12z GFS seems to cave towards the Euro 00z/06z operationals in terms of slower movement and a track farther south.

[SFLcane]

Total cave to the euro here on the 12z gfs run no bueno for the islands first in line.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1963633823360438327

[Pelicane]

Same thing happened with Fernand. GFS really struggling with MDR storms this season.

[Pelicane]

Hmm, why is 12z GFS suddenly leaning towards competing vorts? This hasn't been the case in earlier runs or other models.

https://i.postimg.cc/BZD4m7pv/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh60-trend.gif

There's a bit of GEFS activity for the other vort too.

[Stratton23]

interesting to see where this ends up on the GFS , GFS also trending weaker with the trough/ weakness over the eastern US, trending towards more ridging in place

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS all about the ridge, I think this is where it flips to be closer to Euro. Interested to see if the ensembles follow or not. It's showing the system east of it that icon did also. Canadian is also riding left of its 0z.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Same thing happened with Fernand. GFS really struggling with MDR storms this season.

Too soon to say which model is struggling. One will verify.

[Teban54]

Run-to-run consistency:

[BobHarlem]

Over Guadeloupe/Dominica here.

[Travorum]

In addition to the southerly jump the 12z GFS is trending way slower—at 144hrs its 4 degrees east of both the 6z GFS and Euro, and 2 degrees east of the 0z Euro. Only ICON is slower.

[chris_fit]

12Z Canadian also much slower and a bit further S than the 00Z run.

[TampaWxLurker]

At 216 hrs into the run heading NW over the BVI. Not showing a huge amount strengthening. Looks to be headed into an area of higher shear north of the islands. Maybe a TUTT if I'm reading the charts right (and I'm probably not).

[Pelicane]

At 216 hrs into the run heading NW over the BVI. Not showing a huge amount strengthening. Looks to be headed into an area of higher shear north of the islands. Maybe a TUTT if I'm reading the charts right (and I'm probably not).

That and the outflow of a developing WCAR and Gulf system.