ATL: Ex INVEST 91L - Discussion (0/0)

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146550
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2025 2:41 pm

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146550
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2025 2:46 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2025090418, , BEST, 0, 121N, 342W, 20, 1011, DB


Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurrilurker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 729
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
Location: San Francisco, CA

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#23 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 04, 2025 3:05 pm

That NHC "development cone" keeps steadily ticking more and more south on the west end.
3 likes   

SconnieCane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1008
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#24 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 04, 2025 3:15 pm

Oh *bleep,* that new red shaded zone of potential formation (not yet really a "cone" based on track forecast points, remember) is a lot further southwest and now encompasses portions of the northern, central AND southern Lesser Antilles.

Operational global runs are well-nigh useless for intensity at this range. There might be a TUTT that imparts detrimental shear on it, there might not.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146550
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2025 4:07 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10167
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#26 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 04, 2025 4:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2025090418, , BEST, 0, 121N, 342W, 20, 1011, DB



Image

91L may be consolidating a bit north of 12.1N/34.2W?
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
mpic
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 624
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:24 am
Location: Splendora, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#27 Postby mpic » Thu Sep 04, 2025 5:54 pm

What time frame are we looking at IF it comes into the Gulf? Trying to make plans for a surgery.
2 likes   
Alicia, Rita, Ike, Harvey and Beryl...moved to Splendora lol

User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 498
Age: 53
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#28 Postby ouragans » Thu Sep 04, 2025 5:59 pm

mpic wrote:What time frame are we looking at IF it comes into the Gulf? Trying to make plans for a surgery.

More than 14 days
1 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146550
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2025 6:20 pm

Josh is watching very closely.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1963728816599105602

5 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146550
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2025 6:31 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a concentrated but still disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as it moves
slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
This system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle
to latter part of next week, and interests there should continue to
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5547
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#31 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 7:20 pm

Someone wake up Wxman or any of the other dozen or so Pro Mets here LOL. Peak week of the season with a 60/90 MDR Invest, along with models that are throwing a grab-bag of intensity & track solutions. Yet, mum's the word from any of them (or Levi for that matter)?? :sleeping:
2 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#32 Postby hipshot » Thu Sep 04, 2025 7:27 pm

chaser1 wrote:Someone wake up Wxman or any of the other dozen or so Pro Mets here LOL. Peak week of the season with a 60/90 MDR Invest, along with models that are throwing a grab-bag of intensity & track solutions. Yet, mum's the word from any of them (or Levi for that matter)?? :sleeping:

I've been checking Levi's website and nothing yet but he was probably waiting for it to be declared an invest so he should have something to say soon.
1 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2410
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#33 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 04, 2025 7:27 pm

18z best track was 12.1N but this looks more like 13.5N. Probably another round of model changes overnight.

Image
0 likes   

Deshaunrob17
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:49 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#34 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 7:32 pm

I’m not surprised one bit that Euro has it weak. Models won’t handle this system properly.
1. Lots of dry air keeping it small- reminds me of how Dorian started .
2. A wave still embedded within the monsoon mess.

I won’t trust models as yet. Also, never trust these small system during the peak of season.
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146550
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#35 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:26 pm

More south.

AL, 91, 2025090500, , BEST, 0, 117N, 346W, 20, 1011, DB


Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#36 Postby hipshot » Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:More south.

AL, 91, 2025090500, , BEST, 0, 117N, 346W, 20, 1011, DB


https://i.imgur.com/VW0f3rB.png

This is starting to look a little spooky!!
1 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5547
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#37 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:More south.

AL, 91, 2025090500, , BEST, 0, 117N, 346W, 20, 1011, DB


https://i.imgur.com/VW0f3rB.png


:eek: Ummm, I must be living in some alternate Universe then. There is not any convection at those coordinates but there sure appears to be some random CDO exhibiting rotation and banding between 2-3 degrees north of there. So NHC believes that a potential MLC is going to relocate approx 100 miles to the SSW in alignment with the broader LLC? I seriously would like to understand their thinking.
2 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3311
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#38 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:54 pm

BobHarlem wrote:18z best track was 12.1N but this looks more like 13.5N. Probably another round of model changes overnight.

https://i.postimg.cc/Qd5ZGcWp/48741101.gif

91L's mid-level vorticity is well to the north of low-level now, so it could simply be that what we're seeing from satellite at 13-14N isn't making it down to the surface.

If upcoming convective bursts tonight continue to focus around 14N, I wouldn't be surprised if it consolidates further north. That said, the hurricane models seem to suggest that convection will spread from 11N to 14N tonight.

850-700-500 mb vorticity:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3311
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#39 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:56 pm

91L is also at a boundary with high shear to the north and low shear to the south, possibly explaining the discrepancy:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5547
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (60/90)

#40 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 9:09 pm

Albeit slowly, 91L appears to already be moving west of any near term upper level shear (whether it be at 11.5 N or 14.0 N). Point being, the MLC is dominant and it's 2 degrees north of Best Track. My eyes are having a hard time unseeing that.
1 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC/MED”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 59 guests