ATL: Ex-INVEST 91L - Models

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BobHarlem
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#121 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:23 pm

Barbados gets the right front quad here (a lot closer than Beryl got last year to it). Then it goes right over St. Lucia.
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#122 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:26 pm

The 0Z CMC is similar to the GFS in being further S than its prior run and is close to the 0Z GFS as of 144.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#123 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:30 pm

0z Canadian goes right over Martinique, big change from 12z which curved north of the islands. (it goes north of Barbados)

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Then over St. Croix and the other US Virgin Islands, then clips the northeastern tip of Puerto Rico.
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Final 0z Canadian frame, moving wnw here with strong ridging still.
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:50 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#124 Postby IcyTundra » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:30 pm

Looks like an upper trough is going to do some serious damage on it as it moves through the Caribbean on this run.
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BobHarlem
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#125 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:44 pm

0z GFS goes right over the heart of the "shredder" in Hispaniola. The ridge is pretty strong, looks like it wants to go to Florida again, or at least visit Cuba a bit before so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#126 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:49 pm

I dont like seeing the trend of that trough over the eastern US trending weaker and moving out faster, seems like the trend is toward stronger ridging
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#127 Postby LAF92 » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:55 pm

West she goes into the gulf with the ridge holding strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#128 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:57 pm

Key West landfall, followed by Naples/Marco Island and over lake Okeechobee, may be a setup for another east coast landfall past Florida also.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#129 Postby IcyTundra » Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:07 am

0Z GEFS is still pretty anemic. It does have one member that passes to the north of Trinidad and Tobago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#130 Postby Pelicane » Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:26 am

Both HAFS models seem to develop it a bit more in the next 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#131 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:35 am

And the Euro just went ka poof completely, 91L dies out before ever getting to the leeward islands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#132 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 1:16 am

Stratton23 wrote:And the Euro just went ka poof completely, 91L dies out before ever getting to the leeward islands

Maybe the Euro will be right, but it just has not seemed great this season so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#133 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 2:09 am

GFS caved to the Euro in terms of a more southern track, but ensemble support has really started to fall off, i guess we will just have to see what 91L looks like tomorrow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#134 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2025 4:48 am

A growing trend? 06z ICON barely develops.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#135 Postby Cachondo23 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 5:13 am

GFS very weak so far, if this does not develop in the end it could be a big bust.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#136 Postby kevin » Fri Sep 05, 2025 5:19 am

Meanwhile 06z GFS is farther north than 00z and is showing a low-end cat 1 impacting the islands.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#137 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Sep 05, 2025 5:45 am

0z Euro Ensembles, of the ones that develop -- a lot of them drop it now, a slight majority curve north of the islands again. Only a single google deep mind ensemble member develops it.
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0z GFS Ensembles have a lot dropping it also.
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0z Google deep mind, 1 lone member
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#138 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Sep 05, 2025 5:57 am

6z GFS, big shift right, passes through some of the northeast islands and then heads out to sea, avoiding Bermuda to the east. Yet another 180 from the 0z run, which was a 180 from the 18z run.
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Trend animation focused around Puerto Rico (good luck).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#139 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 6:04 am

And the 06z GEFS shifted south again, with most members ( that do end up developing ) pretty far south in the caribbean, mych different from the OP run lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#140 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Sep 05, 2025 6:51 am

It's honestly quite fascinating seeing how the models are trying to get a grasp on 91L. Especially with the operational GFS's highly discrepant runs and with ensemble support going from major hurricanes to barely anything. I really think that this being in the monsoonal trough is making things much more complicated than if it were a clean wave exiting Africa (like Erin).

However, here's what we do know.

- This system is likely going to ride at a fairly low latitude in the MDR, which means islands in the Lesser Antilles should prepare for likely impacts. How bad is still up in the air.

- We're in September, with very warm waters and an upcoming favorable MJO phase. Given climo, it's more likely than not that this system will eventually become something trackable. It also sits at 60/90, so a monkey wrench would have to be thrown in to really have this turn out to be little to nothing.
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