ATL: Ex-INVEST 91L - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#141 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 05, 2025 7:07 am

I guess we will see if the Euro keeps its crown the rest of the season after a change of heart for 91L.
It usually sniffs new changes first, we shall see.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1963936581955248558

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#142 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 7:26 am

NDG wrote:I guess we will see if the Euro keeps its crown the rest of the season after a change of heart for 91L.
It usually sniffs new changes first, we shall see.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1963936581955248558



Hardly a crown worthy performance to be hyping up a hurricane for days and then to suddenly drop it imo (assuming it doesn't revert back).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#143 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 05, 2025 7:45 am

Hammy noted this a few years ago, where the Euro started this habit of dropping storms in the mid range only to pic them up again later. Let's see if this is a similar case.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#144 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 05, 2025 7:47 am

And the trend today is… nothing? This system, no matter the outcome, will be a serious bust for somebody.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#145 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 05, 2025 7:57 am

What does the 06z Euro and it's ENS show?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#146 Postby Teban54 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 8:07 am

chris_fit wrote:What does the 06z Euro and it's ENS show?

From what I can see on Tropical Tidbits, 6z EC-Fast continues to show no development through 72 hours. (GFS, CMC and ICON have a TC near 45W at that time.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#147 Postby DunedinDave » Fri Sep 05, 2025 9:41 am

This could end up being another 90 and 99L. Puts a scare in you early on, but day by day, models begin to shred it apart and it doesn’t develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#148 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 05, 2025 9:41 am

chris_fit wrote:What does the 06z Euro and it's ENS show?


Similar to the much quieter than earlier 0Z Euro ens, the 6Z Euro ens has only ~4 members out of 50 with a TC at the end (144) though 2 of them are 960s hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#149 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:26 am

12Z Icon is the weakest in quite awhile with no closed surface low at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#150 Postby TampaWxLurker » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:28 am

12z Icon running. Further west and weaker. Never seems to develop much beyond maybe a Tropical Storm, lowest pressure on the run so far is 1010mb. Falls apart by +102 hours east of the Lesser Antilles, and turns into an open wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#151 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:33 am

ICON drops it completely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#152 Postby TampaWxLurker » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:39 am

Quite a trend on the Icon. 2 & 3 runs ago it had a strong Cat 2/3 approaching the Caribbean. 1 run ago a strengthening Tropical Storm. This run, poof.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#153 Postby Pelicane » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:40 am

GFS is the last one standing. If it drops it, then the chances of this forming anytime soon will drop considerably imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#154 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:41 am

Let there be poof! (12z icon)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#155 Postby skillz305 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:45 am

12Z GFS running
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#156 Postby TampaWxLurker » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:50 am

And at +54 hours...poof.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#157 Postby Pelicane » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:50 am

skillz305 wrote:12Z GFS running


Looks way weaker so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#158 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:54 am

The gfs is continuing the downtrend. The 06z had a depression by the 7th, but now shows no development at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#159 Postby skillz305 » Fri Sep 05, 2025 10:54 am

TampaWxLurker wrote:And at +54 hours...poof.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.



Pops right back up 12 hours later +66


Edit: then poofs again :double:

Edit: I think it’s drunk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#160 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 05, 2025 11:06 am

skillz305 wrote:
TampaWxLurker wrote:And at +54 hours...poof.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.



Pops right back up 12 hours later +66


Edit: then poofs again :double:

Edit: I think it’s drunk


But it’s not the Happy Hour run. :lol:
———
12Z UKMET once again has no TC.
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