ATL: Ex-INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
I guess we will see if the Euro keeps its crown the rest of the season after a change of heart for 91L.
It usually sniffs new changes first, we shall see.
https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1963936581955248558
It usually sniffs new changes first, we shall see.
https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1963936581955248558
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
NDG wrote:I guess we will see if the Euro keeps its crown the rest of the season after a change of heart for 91L.
It usually sniffs new changes first, we shall see.
https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1963936581955248558
Hardly a crown worthy performance to be hyping up a hurricane for days and then to suddenly drop it imo (assuming it doesn't revert back).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Hammy noted this a few years ago, where the Euro started this habit of dropping storms in the mid range only to pic them up again later. Let's see if this is a similar case.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
And the trend today is… nothing? This system, no matter the outcome, will be a serious bust for somebody.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
chris_fit wrote:What does the 06z Euro and it's ENS show?
From what I can see on Tropical Tidbits, 6z EC-Fast continues to show no development through 72 hours. (GFS, CMC and ICON have a TC near 45W at that time.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
This could end up being another 90 and 99L. Puts a scare in you early on, but day by day, models begin to shred it apart and it doesn’t develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
chris_fit wrote:What does the 06z Euro and it's ENS show?
Similar to the much quieter than earlier 0Z Euro ens, the 6Z Euro ens has only ~4 members out of 50 with a TC at the end (144) though 2 of them are 960s hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12Z Icon is the weakest in quite awhile with no closed surface low at 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z Icon running. Further west and weaker. Never seems to develop much beyond maybe a Tropical Storm, lowest pressure on the run so far is 1010mb. Falls apart by +102 hours east of the Lesser Antilles, and turns into an open wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ICON drops it completely.
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Quite a trend on the Icon. 2 & 3 runs ago it had a strong Cat 2/3 approaching the Caribbean. 1 run ago a strengthening Tropical Storm. This run, poof.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
GFS is the last one standing. If it drops it, then the chances of this forming anytime soon will drop considerably imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12Z GFS running
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
And at +54 hours...poof.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The gfs is continuing the downtrend. The 06z had a depression by the 7th, but now shows no development at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
TampaWxLurker wrote:And at +54 hours...poof.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.
Pops right back up 12 hours later +66
Edit: then poofs again

Edit: I think it’s drunk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
skillz305 wrote:TampaWxLurker wrote:And at +54 hours...poof.
Let's see if it redevelops further in the run though.
Pops right back up 12 hours later +66
Edit: then poofs again
Edit: I think it’s drunk
But it’s not the Happy Hour run.

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12Z UKMET once again has no TC.
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