2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

00z GFS really lifts the ITCZ far north into the SW caribbean and the CAG gets going, very sloppy system developing in the central gulf on this run

[LAF92]

2 runs in a row of the GFS with an organized system moving out of the BOC northward around day 10

[Cpv17]

2 runs in a row of the GFS with an organized system moving out of the BOC northward around day 10

Looks like LA and points east of there could be dealing with something. Hurricane season for Texas could be over with.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 Texas is most certainly not out of the woods by any stretch

[LAF92]

2 runs in a row of the GFS with an organized system moving out of the BOC northward around day 10

Looks like LA and points east of there could be dealing with something. Hurricane season for Texas could be over with.

The 12z GFS takes a 979mb hurricane to the Tx/La border. Yes I know it’s 13 days out but you can’t ever count a Tx out especially with this weird season lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 Texas is most certainly not out of the woods by any stretch

Majority of ensembles the past few days are Louisiana and points east. Plus a front just came through here. Texas looks protected.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 I respectfully disagree, we will see

[Cpv17]

2 runs in a row of the GFS with an organized system moving out of the BOC northward around day 10

Looks like LA and points east of there could be dealing with something. Hurricane season for Texas could be over with.

The 12z GFS takes a 979mb hurricane to the Tx/La border. Yes I know it’s 13 days out but you can’t ever count a Tx out especially with this weird season lol

Yeah, I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I just feel like LA and points east have a much better chance.

[Teban54]

Posting the said 12z GFS run. The previous 6z run does something similar, but weaker and further east at landfall. Note that this is mostly in the fantasy range, but still.

[Weathertracker96]

The fronts that protected us from the MDR systems may give us problems as we get more into the back of the season. Will be interesting to watch what the models show down the road. For FL at least, it seems most of our threats come later in the season.

[cycloneye]

The Euro has no developments thru September 22nd.

[Stratton23]

After taking a look at the latest GEFS/ EPS MJO forecasts, I definitely do think we will have a couple of areas to watch in the 10-12 day period, models are for the most part quiet the next 2 weeks, but i strongly suspect the models will be incorrect about that

[NDG]

GFS is all alone with development NW Caribbean/S Gulf.
12z Euro shows lots of shear for the gulf.

[Nimbus]

GFS is all alone with development NW Caribbean/S Gulf.
12z Euro shows lots of shear for the gulf.

That is what is hindering the current surface low, dry shear.
Still can run rain rates up several inches downwind from the center.

[LAF92]

3rd run in a row of the GFS showing an organized system in the Gulf. Lets see how long it holds on to this scenario

[Stratton23]

I have a hunch that the GFS has been consistent with showing potential gulf development from the CAG because it is seeing the MJO moving in and really enhancing convection over the western basin, time will tell if my suspicions are right or not though

[LAF92]

I have a hunch that the GFS has been consistent with showing potential gulf development from the CAG because it is seeing the MJO moving in and really enhancing convection over the western basin, time will tell if my suspicions are right or not though

You think the other models aren’t picking up on the MJO moving in?

[LarryWx]

I haven’t posted about the Euro Weeklies in awhile. Has anyone noticed that over the last few days that the Euro Weeklies have backed off of how active they were progging for the bulk of the rest of Sept?

% of 2005-2024 ACE
Sept 8-14: 0.6/0.5/0.5/0.4/0.2/0.2/0.1 (0.1 for that peak week is only ~2 ACE vs ~10 ACE 6 runs ago likely mainly related to 91L busting)

Sept 15-21: 1.2/1.1/0.9/0.7/0.8/0.9/0.5 (0.5 for that week is ~8 ACE vs ~19 ACE 6 runs ago likely partially related to 91L busting)

Sept 22-28: 1.3/1.1/1.0/1.2/1.1/0.7 (0.7 for that week is ~10 ACE vs ~19 ACE 5 runs ago (too far in future to be related to 91L busting)

So these 3 weeks, combined, they’ve dropped from an active ~48 to a well below avg ~20. A good portion of this of this almost has to be Invest 91L bust related. But not all of it.

Any thoughts? The Euro Weeklies have overall had a pretty good feel for things since 2024. Are they on to something or are they lost?

[Stratton23]

LAF92 its possible, but its also possible the GFS is just being the GFS, i will say though globap models typically dont really see MJO passages all that well, so i guess we will see if what the GFS is showing ends up have some legitimacy to it down the road or not

[cycloneye]

GFS on long range has this.