EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (Is Invest 95E)

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EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (Is Invest 95E)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2025 2:41 pm

Kingarabian, how you see the potential of this one to be a strong cane?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave entering the far eastern Pacific from Central
America is forecast to spawn an area of low pressure by the middle
to latter portion of this week offshore of the coast of south or
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the latter half of this week as it moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the southern
to southwestern Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


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EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (10/50)

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 08, 2025 5:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian, how you see the potential of this one to be a strong cane?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave entering the far eastern Pacific from Central
America is forecast to spawn an area of low pressure by the middle
to latter portion of this week offshore of the coast of south or
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are favorable for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the latter half of this week as it moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the southern
to southwestern Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


https://i.imgur.com/TsA8YmZ.png


Considering Lorena was about to overachieve if it had more time, I would say were looking at a major hurricane with this one. Im usually skeptical on the ceilings of these systems that are off the Mexican coast moving NW in non +ENSO years. But this year has behaved differently.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (10/50)

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 08, 2025 5:12 pm

If this storm gets named, it's going to be....yup, Mario. :lol:

Let'sa go!
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (10/50)

#4 Postby StormWeather » Mon Sep 08, 2025 5:32 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:If this storm gets named, it's going to be....yup, Mario. :lol:

Let'sa go!

:spam:
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (30/70)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 08, 2025 6:37 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located around 150 miles south of El Salvador is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week as it moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the Mexican
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (30/70)

#6 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Sep 08, 2025 7:17 pm

I hope this becomes a Jova 2.0 away from MX, since the NHC looks to be a little less conservative this year. Wahoo!
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (30/80)

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2025 4:06 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located around 150 miles south of the southern coast
of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (30/80)

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2025 6:34 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the southern coast of Guatemala is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are favorable for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week as it moves
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the Mexican
coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Kelly
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (40/80)

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2025 12:38 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025

South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the southern coast of Guatemala is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Wave in the Far Eastern Pacific (Is Invest 95E)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2025 1:41 pm

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