2025 NATL hurricane season is here

[Woofde]

That in no way addresses the multitide of different types of seasons that have occurred and will occur going forward nor does it mean it's climate change.

The increase in intense cyclones is well understood and follows a very logical one step relationship. Warmer SSTs allow for faster winds in established cyclones. The data supports this very clearly with recent rapid intensification trends and higher end hurricanes. Confidence is very high for "Warmer SSTs increases the top end of cyclones".

The increase/decrease in #number of hurricanes/tropical storms is more complicated involving theoretical decreases in stability and/or more wind shear. This can potentially be offset by a "larger" playing field with more of the ocean being above 26C. It's a far more complicated relationship without a direct connection unlike with the "intense storms hypothesis".

The research paper commonly cited uses modeling to attempt to predict these changes. Their conclusion also stated that there was lower confidence in #number of storms changing.

One is clear cut, the other is more murky, but we can't dismiss all climate change related changes simply because one change possesses a lower confidence.

You also cant guesstimate it or assume it either. That isn't science and in some cases it's just pushing an agenda without 100% clear facts. The last several years all the talk going forward was about an increase in amount of hurricanes with possible Cat. 6 category needed due to climate change. There was no talk of near zero hurricane activity impending and correlating it with climate change.

There certainly has been a lot of hype around climate change and hurricanes in recent years, I agree with that. Anyone talking about a "Category 6" doesn't understand why hurricane categories were even created, I would put that talk into the bucket of "unfounded hype".

I'm specifically refering to the findings of NOAA and WMO in regards to climate change's effects on the hurricane season. I linked it below, their findings are high confidence of an increase in intense cyclones and increased rainfall. Low confidence in a lower number of overall TCs.

These are well researched conclusions with ample data supporting them.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

[LarryWx]

To be fair, contradictory effects are a common thing in scientific research. Like in my field, I study the supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. When they consume matter, they generate a ton of energy that then gets deposited in the host galaxy. Simulations and observations show that this energy can suppress star formation in the galaxy, but they *also* show it can enhance star formation. It is unclear which effect dominates, or whether they have equal magnitude, or whether one or the other applies to different types of galaxies, or the same galaxy at different times.

...But this doesn't make supermassive black holes any less real

That in no way addresses the multitide of different types of seasons that have occurred and will occur going forward nor does it mean it's climate change.

The increase in intense cyclones is well understood and follows a very logical one step relationship. Warmer SSTs allow for faster winds in established cyclones. The data supports this very clearly with recent rapid intensification trends and higher end hurricanes. Confidence is very high for "Warmer SSTs increases the top end of cyclones".

The increase/decrease in #number of hurricanes/tropical storms is more complicated involving theoretical decreases in stability and/or more wind shear. This can potentially be offset by a "larger" playing field with more of the ocean being above 26C. It's a far more complicated relationship without a direct connection unlike with the "intense storms hypothesis".

The research paper commonly cited uses modeling to attempt to predict these changes. Their conclusion also stated that there was lower confidence in #number of storms changing.

One is clear cut, the other is more murky, but we can't dismiss all climate change related changes simply because one change possesses a lower confidence.

Well, we’ve had the stronger extremes with a whopping 11 cat 5s just since 2016! Compare that to the prior 11 cat 5s occurring over a 27 year period meaning a near tripling of their frequency. But what’s not yet evident is the drop in the avg # of storms as there have been 14+ every year since 2016 with 168 storms 2016-24 or an avg of a whopping 19 storms/year! Compare that to only an avg of 14 storms the prior 9 years and 15 during the 9 years before that.

Cat 5s:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... hurricanes

[caneman]

The increase in intense cyclones is well understood and follows a very logical one step relationship. Warmer SSTs allow for faster winds in established cyclones. The data supports this very clearly with recent rapid intensification trends and higher end hurricanes. Confidence is very high for "Warmer SSTs increases the top end of cyclones".

The increase/decrease in #number of hurricanes/tropical storms is more complicated involving theoretical decreases in stability and/or more wind shear. This can potentially be offset by a "larger" playing field with more of the ocean being above 26C. It's a far more complicated relationship without a direct connection unlike with the "intense storms hypothesis".

The research paper commonly cited uses modeling to attempt to predict these changes. Their conclusion also stated that there was lower confidence in #number of storms changing.

One is clear cut, the other is more murky, but we can't dismiss all climate change related changes simply because one change possesses a lower confidence.

You also cant guesstimate it or assume it either. That isn't science and in some cases it's just pushing an agenda without 100% clear facts. The last several years all the talk going forward was about an increase in amount of hurricanes with possible Cat. 6 category needed due to climate change. There was no talk of near zero hurricane activity impending and correlating it with climate change.

There certainly has been a lot of hype around climate change and hurricanes in recent years, I agree with that. Anyone talking about a "Category 6" doesn't understand why hurricane categories were even created, I would put that talk into the bucket of "unfounded hype".

I'm specifically refering to the findings of NOAA and WMO in regards to climate change's effects on the hurricane season. I linked it below, their findings are high confidence of an increase in intense cyclones and increased rainfall. Low confidence in a lower number of overall TCs.

These are well researched conclusions with ample data supporting them.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warmin ... urricanes/

I can understand a hypothesis of increased hurricane activity and strength possibly correlating with climate change even though I'm more in the camp of cyclical and not having enough history . However, science cant be expected to be taken seriously when it doesn't happen so they flip to the exact opposite of what they claim as proof of climate change.

[Category5Kaiju]

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/LxGBpAg.png

That might be me. Except I'm still seriously annoyed with the models after the 91L fiasco so I'm probably sort of pretending not to care what they show at the moment.

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/LxGBpAg.png

That might be me. Except I'm still seriously annoyed with the models after the 91L fiasco so I'm probably sort of pretending not to care what they show at the moment.

Im in the not care camp after dealing with Helene and Milton. People here still recovering and really changed our economy. Need a break

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/LxGBpAg.png

Hey wait?? Who stole Storm_in_a_teacup' art-work

[chaser1]

Someone help me with this. I am both confused and intrigued by the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlooks. I have always been under the impression that TWO'S served the purpose of acknowledging what tropical disturbances existed throughout the basin, discussion about its motion, and their general explanation regarding the potential for each disturbance to further develop. Furthermore, I had always believed that their TWO forecasts were unrelated to "model casting", and at least largely based on forecasters' analysis of overall conditions.

I began to question their forecast process after NHC continued to hype 91L's TWO forecast percentages in spite of what seemed plainly obvious to many people's eyes while simply viewing visible satellite. In spite of 91L's disheveled appearance and LLC remaining detached 5 degreea south of the MLC energy, it was apparent that NHC was following a LLC which models were insistent would develop at some point near or south of 10N. In fact, NHC continued to double-down on their expectation that a TD would soon develop.

I'm not at all questioning NHC because they were wrong. I'm questioning whether NHC was wrong solely because their forecast for development was entirely based on model forecasts which entirely whiffed? I hadn't really given it all that much thought either way however, until today.

If NHC tropical weather outlooks are NOT entirely based upon "model-casting, then someone explain to me why during the heart of hurricane season, do they completely ignore a tropical disturbance approaching the Caribbean Islands which has exhibited convection for roughly 48 hours and displays at least minimal hints of a weak circulation at some level?? Is it because most models simply ignore this disturbance? That certainly would not be my definition of a daily observation & forecast for the Atlantic basin.

Therefore, if NHC simply observes conditions (SST, dry layers within the atmospheric, vertical shear, or any other metric) to be not conducive for development, wouldn't it be customery to acknowledge an area of disturbed weather and simply state that conditions are unfavorable for development? I think it's a fair question to ask.

[MarioProtVI]

https://i.imgur.com/LxGBpAg.png

Only to vanish on all models at 00z.

I think we should start looking into the real possibility this could end up being the worst-performing September since 1994 and end up with the strongest being a non-major (small possibility of hurricane-less?). Models are extremely out of whack right now and are honestly not handling the current conditions well and the background state is probably not enough to result in a 2022/24 like comeback at the end of the month. Long-term models like the CFS don’t seem to show any signs of increased activity despite the supposed MJO which rings alarm bells pretty much.

[tolakram]

Let's not conflate social media crap with what goes on here.

I think the valid point is that over and over again, be it climate change or wave breaking or whatever the flavor of the season is, we tend to see everything unexpected being blamed on it. If this season gets started and has a big finish you can expect people to blame it on ..... That's the issue IMO, people love blaming things for the unexpected.

[cycloneye]

JB joins the trend.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1965380328710873360

[chaser1]

Let's not conflate social media crap with what goes on here.

I think the valid point is that over and over again, be it climate change or wave breaking or whatever the flavor of the season is, we tend to see everything unexpected being blamed on it. If this season gets started and has a big finish you can expect people to blame it on ..... That's the issue IMO, people love blaming things for the unexpected.

I agree with this but I think that at its root it isn't so much that people love blaming things on the unexpected, but rather a shared frustration for our (NHC, Forecasting agencies, "Science") inability to truly anticipate those factors that impact tropical cyclone activity and broader scale favorability vs unfavorability. Tbh, I think you have to give the Professionals a lot of credit in most years for properly analyzing climate conditions and the type of tropical cyclone activity they expect.

I think it is our human nature to learn and understand as we move forward. I also think there is a more secure sense of safety and "grounding" when we kind of know what to expect. I think the whole blame thing is our need to fill in the gaps and make sense of the insecurity of simply not knowing. For those of us who are science geeks & weather buffs, I totally get feeling exasperated. These last two hurricane seasons just feel as if the science of Meteorology has taken a step backwards. The blame is our feeble attempt to understand why.

[cycloneye]

Must see video from NHC

60% of the season is left and as a saying says, is not over until is over on november 30th.

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1965474086932390223

[Stratton23]

Just got done watching JB’s latest video on weatherbell, he pretty much is expecting activity to pick up with this MJO rotation in 8/1 and 2 , as the NHC said we still have aways to go in the season, I would love for things to stay quiet, but realistically thats not going to happen lol, we will be tracking things in the coming weeks ahead, i get everyone being wary of the models this season and how they have done, but i seriously doubt we go storm free through november 30th

[Ptarmigan]

As Yogi Berra would say, "It ain't over til it's over.".

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1965591506409939320

[cycloneye]

Today, being the peak day of the season, the Atlantic basin is calm and no cyclonic development is expected for the next 7 days. Don't think that because it's so calm, it will stay that way, since there are indications that atmospheric conditions are going to improve in the next 2 weeks with the wet Madden oscillation arriving in the basin, which will favor development.

[LarryWx]

Today, being the peak day of the season, the Atlantic basin is calm and no cyclonic development is expected for the next 7 days. Don't think that because it's so calm, it will stay that way, since there are indications that atmospheric conditions are going to improve in the next 2 weeks with the wet Madden oscillation arriving in the basin, which will favor development.

https://i.imgur.com/PGZFwHJ.png

1. As a resident of the hard hit SE US and in a vulnerable location, I’m enjoying the calm. Boring is a small price to pay to avoid the chance for more destruction from these potential monsters.

2. The MJO was already in the favorable phase 2 Sept 2nd-8th. It’s currently in phase 3 but is forecasted to go back into favorable 2 followed by favorable 1 and 8 during 9/13-24.

[WeatherBoy2000]

September 10th is statistically the most active day of the Atlantic hurricane season, and for the first time since 2016 there are no TCs:

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1965777646845120688

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

JB joins the trend.

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1965380328710873360

This account is full of climate, vaccine, and energy misinformation. Absolutely cuckoo stuff. I'd be careful trusting anything he says.