Tropical Wave over the Eastern Atlantic (0/60)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa in a
couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system over the weekend into early next week as
the wave moves to the west-northwest at about 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[MarioProtVI]

September 10 isn’t dead after all

[BobHarlem]

The operational 12z GFS doesn't show it at all now, and the 12z Euro dropped it until much further west. Recurve or near Bermuda system (if it survives), this season is on repeat.

[TomballEd]

September 10 isn’t dead after all

This has ensemble support, but that last cherry didn't happen. There are no TCs in the basin

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro, shows delayed development then slurps up two waves east of it. Bound to be interesting to follow even if it recurves or poofs. 12z GFS already gave up on it.

[tolakram]

We don't believe the models anymore when they show development, but we do when they show no development?

I don't believe it either.

[AnnularCane]

It's dead out there, remember? Somebody probably just spilled some lemonade or something.

[Cachondo23]

Euro AI has this one passing through NE Caribbean. It was one of the only models that was forecasting 91L going poof before the other ones followed it…

[Teban54]

The MH at the end of the Euro run appears to be this wave, but development only starts N of the Lesser Antilles in the 10+ day range.

[LarryWx]

A majority of 12Z as well as 18Z operationals have this. The consensus of these that have it and the major ensembles is for a recurve well E of the US but with Bermuda much more in question. Regardless, the track and whether it even forms is very far from being etched in stone considering the disturbance is still over W Africa.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa in a
couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system over the weekend into early next week as
the wave moves to the west-northwest at about 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[Teban54]

18z ICON ends the run with a TS in MDR.

18z GFS has a weak/moderate TS in the MDR, that stalls well north of Lesser Antilles (60W), bombs out there, and recurves. Interestingly, its ensemble members often show a much earlier recurve.

[Pelicane]

This wave looks like it could be quite large, which could make it more resistant to any shear.

[LarryWx]

Another UKMET run (0Z) with an MDR TS headed for an early recurve:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 26.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2025 72 11.7N 26.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 14.09.2025 84 13.1N 30.4W 1008 30
0000UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.2N 32.8W 1007 30
1200UTC 15.09.2025 108 14.4N 35.6W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.7N 37.7W 1005 35
1200UTC 16.09.2025 132 16.8N 39.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.8N 40.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 17.09.2025 156 19.9N 42.2W 1002 44
0000UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.1N 43.3W 1002 46

[Teban54]

0z ICON, GFS and CMC all show development. Even CMC gets it down to the lower 990s, which is quite rare for that model.

I won't wait for ECMWF for tonight.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa in a
couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system over the weekend into early next week as
the wave moves to the west or west-northwest at about 15 mph over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by
Friday. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of the system over the weekend into early next week as
the wave moves to the west or west-northwest at about 15 mph over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[kevin]

Spends about 9 days a hurricane on the 06z GFS run and recurves just east of Bermuda. Becomes a TS at +108 hr (Monday), a hurricane at +132 h. If this run would become reality it'd add about 30 - 35 ACE to the total.

[Teban54]

It's obviously still too early to know if this will develop, but here's the trend on GFS as far out as Tropical Tidbits allows (dating back to runs that still developed 91L). Very little consistent development until GFS (and other models*) suddenly flipped about 3 runs ago, even though this lead time had entered the supposedly reliable 10-day range for a while.

* Caveat: While ICON and CMC show a developing TC at this time, ECMWF still leans towards postponed development for this wave, or even dropping it in favor of the 9/20 wave.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by
Friday. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system over the weekend and into early next
week while the wave moves toward the west or west-northwest at 10
to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.