EPAC: MARIO - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2025090918, , BEST, 0, 117N, 937W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, ep752025 to ep952025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952025.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Hoping this bombs out for the memes

[Hurricane2022]

Kingarabian, Yellow Evan, what are the chances of 95E (Future Mario) becoming a major?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025


South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian, Yellow Evan, what are the chances of 95E (Future Mario) becoming a major?

Pretty good IF it stays off the coast. Looks like there's a good chance it becomes a major hurricane near Baja. If theres blocking high pressure that forces it west, it can also become a major before reaching cooler waters

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025


South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave located a couple hundred miles offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025


South of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
A tropical wave located a couple hundred miles offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this week as it moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the Mexican coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Recent satellite surface wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto
Angel, Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a day or so. The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Bucci/Blake

[Travorum]

Here's the ASCAT passes from METOP-B and C stitched together:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or so as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel
to but offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema

[Yellow Evan]

Probably classifiable.

The GFS and GFS based suit of models need to play catch up still. ECMWF is advertising a great upper environment after tau 48z

[Kingarabian]

Should have a TD/TS by tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are showing signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday
as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 perce

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico continue to show signs
of organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today
as the system moves west-northwestward, roughly parallel to but
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this low. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1966183325946761271

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
just offshore of the coast of southern Mexico continue to show signs
of organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today
or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to but offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this low. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[Hurricane2022]

As per VIS Imagery, it looks like we have closed and well-defined LLC very near the Mexican Coast, just south of Pinotepa. Expecting a upgrade to TD by 21z.

[Yellow Evan]

12 hour motion is NNW. 12z ECMWF also now has meaningful land interaction.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 98.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES



Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
300 PM CST Thu Sep 11 2025

High resolution GOES visible satellite imagery throughout today
indicates that the disturbance south of Mexico has become better
organized. The system has a partially exposed low-level circulation
located near an area of bursting deep convection with cloud top
temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively.
Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression
Thirteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving at an uncertain 300/5 kt. A mid-level
ridge to centered over northern Mexico and Texas should steer the
cyclone west-northwestward with an acceleration in forward speed
during the next few days. Over the weekend, the system should turn
more northwestward as it rounds the periphery of the ridge and
continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. There
is little cross-track variance in the guidance envelope, however, a
bit more of an along-track spread. The official track forecast lies
between the various consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance.

The new cyclone has a rather small circulation. In the next couple
of days, global models suggest vertical wind shear and the proximity
to land should limit the system's ability to strengthen. By the
weekend, environment conditions should become more conducive for
steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to reach
tropical storm strength in a day or so and become a hurricane by
day 3. Late in the forecast period, cooler sea surface temperatures
and dry mid-level humidities should induce a weakening trend. The
initial NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
intensity guidance envelope.

Predicted tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain
offshore of the coast of Mexico. However, heavy rains and
potentially gusty winds are possible along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.5N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.7N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.2N 107.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 22.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch