2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Very much fwiw, but IF the 12Z Euro and GFS were to somehow have the right idea (highly doubtful as of now but interesting to think about), the next TS+ may not be til Sept 25th! When was the last time there was no TS Aug 29th-Sept 25? I may have missed something else, but per my check just now:

-1895: ENSO was warm neutral. No TC shown 8/31-9/27 (pretty comparable), BUT way back then there could have easily been one or more TCs during that period out in the middle of the ocean that were missed.

-1939: ENSO also warm neutral. No TC shown 8/22-9/20…this may be even more impressive but same caveats as above apply though probably not to the same degree

So, due to the extreme rarity, the chances of the 12Z Euro/GFS verifying this way are very slim.

[Stratton23]

12z EPS is by far the strongest signal for the entire basin, yet

[LAF92]

12z EPS is by far the strongest signal for the entire basin, yet

I know it’s one run but it sure has quite a bit of ensembles showing up coming from the BOC

[AnnularCane]

12z EPS is by far the strongest signal for the entire basin, yet

I know it’s one run but it sure has quite a bit of ensembles showing up coming from the BOC

Is that for today? Because the 12Z for today isn't up yet on Tropical Tidbits and I don't know where else it would be.

[Stratton23]

AnnularCane yep its for today, im subscribed to weatherbell so the global runs and ensembles on that site come out earlier than tropical tidbits

[LAF92]

12z EPS is by far the strongest signal for the entire basin, yet

I know it’s one run but it sure has quite a bit of ensembles showing up coming from the BOC

Is that for today? Because the 12Z for today isn't up yet on Tropical Tidbits and I don't know where else it would be.

What Stratton said. Weatherbell has them a little faster but it comes with a subscription. Weatherbell has a lot of really cool things well worth the subscription

[AnnularCane]

I know it’s one run but it sure has quite a bit of ensembles showing up coming from the BOC

Is that for today? Because the 12Z for today isn't up yet on Tropical Tidbits and I don't know where else it would be.

What Stratton said. Weatherbell has them a little faster but it comes with a subscription. Weatherbell has a lot of really cool things well worth the subscription

Oh, well maybe I'll just wait for now.

[Weathertracker96]

The euro operational has something later in Bahamas which I assume is north of the system shown in the 0z euro.
Interesting to hear about the euro ensembles too. Steering will be interesting.

[AnnularCane]

12z EPS is by far the strongest signal for the entire basin, yet

I know it’s one run but it sure has quite a bit of ensembles showing up coming from the BOC

Is it possible to post a run? Seems like every model BUT the EPS has their 12Z run out.

[MetroMike]

The12Z Euro lost the idea of a Caribbean system and has a recurve weak east of Florida.
Nothing to see here again.

[Stratton23]

AnnularCane try weathernerds, its completely free and the 12z EPS is out on that site, goes out to 10 days (240 hours) but it shows the signal im talking about for the western and central parts of the basin

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is very active, spitting tropical waves off africa at a low latitude like a person spitting watermelon seeds, has two ongoing systems on this run through hour 222

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS nada,
18z GFS 3 systems

[Teban54]

It's quite curious how the two waves behind the 0/40 AOI became lowriders on 18z GFS, each making landfall in Lesser Antilles - despite the late September climo that would theoretically favor recurves:



However, this actually agrees with 12z ECMWF, where you can easily trace their vortices as they trek across the MDR (despite being much weaker):

[hurricane2025]

Throw climatology out this is a weird season

[cycloneye]

Teban54, I give a pass to that 18z run. Let's wait to see if 00z has them and Euro joins stronger.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1966655627704369393

[HURRICANELONNY]

I haven't commented much this season but the wave in Africa is one of the biggest I've seen in awhile. Doesn't mean much. Could lose moisture with some dry air ahead of it but dang that huge.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree a climo seems not as important this year. I still think late Sept thru early or mid November will be busy this year.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree I think "climo" will not be as important this year. I still think late September thru mid November will be very busy this year!