Tropical Wave over the Eastern Atlantic (0/60)

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: another run with MDR TS (this time moving WNW)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.7N 32.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2025 84 12.7N 32.7W 1010 27
1200UTC 15.09.2025 96 13.7N 35.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 16.09.2025 108 13.9N 37.7W 1006 28
1200UTC 16.09.2025 120 15.2N 39.8W 1005 38
0000UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.1N 41.3W 1004 40
1200UTC 17.09.2025 144 18.6N 43.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.4N 44.8W 1003 45
1200UTC 18.09.2025 168 21.3N 46.7W 1003 41

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by
Friday. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system over the weekend and into early next
week while the wave moves toward the west or west-northwest at 10
to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: again has a TS in the MDR moving mainly WNaw though it turns W after 156:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.7N 36.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2025 96 14.2N 37.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 16.09.2025 108 15.8N 38.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 17.09.2025 120 17.0N 41.9W 1006 38
1200UTC 17.09.2025 132 17.6N 43.1W 1006 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 144 18.7N 44.9W 1006 43
1200UTC 18.09.2025 156 20.0N 46.7W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 168 19.9N 48.8W 1007 39

[kevin]

Up to 0/40

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days. A tropical
depression could form during the early to middle part of next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kazmit]

Most models show this struggling until reaching more subtropical latitudes.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system over the next several days. A
tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Teban54]

Based on latest model runs alone, Lee 2017 would be a good analog, possibly without dissipation and staying as a TC while being lifted north.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Most models show this struggling until reaching more subtropical latitudes.

06z GFS brings it close to our neighborhood

[cycloneye]

12z GFS=No development.

[LarryWx]

UKMET (12Z) again has this as a TS in the MDR. It develops it 18 hours later. Unlike last run, this one has it already recurving out of the MDR way out in the middle of nowhere:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.5N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 120 18.5N 45.0W 1006 39
0000UTC 18.09.2025 132 19.9N 46.2W 1006 39
1200UTC 18.09.2025 144 22.6N 48.3W 1006 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 156 24.3N 50.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 19.09.2025 168 25.2N 52.2W 1005 41

————-
Also, this run doesn’t have the 2nd TC that the prior run had.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system's
development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and Cabo
Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the far eastern Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit
this system's development over the next few days, but a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: another run with a TS

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.8N 47.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2025 120 17.8N 47.6W 1006 42
1200UTC 18.09.2025 132 19.8N 49.7W 1007 40
0000UTC 19.09.2025 144 21.3N 52.5W 1008 39
1200UTC 19.09.2025 156 22.0N 54.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 20.09.2025 168 23.0N 56.8W 1007 39

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity over the far eastern Atlantic. Dry and stable air will
likely limit this system's development over the next few days, but a
tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of next
week while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity over the far eastern
Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this system's
development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[TomballEd]

Close enough to the USVI and Puerto Rico on the Euro gets my attention. 9 days out it could get further away or get closer. Edit to Add: Op Euro is S of its ensembles.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK: another run with a TS that threatens no land:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.4N 45.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2025 96 16.4N 45.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 18.09.2025 108 17.6N 47.7W 1005 45
1200UTC 18.09.2025 120 19.7N 49.9W 1006 44
0000UTC 19.09.2025 132 20.6N 51.6W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.09.2025 144 21.4N 53.0W 1005 36
0000UTC 20.09.2025 156 22.5N 53.5W 1004 46
1200UTC 20.09.2025 168 22.9N 55.4W 1002 45

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the
far eastern Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this
system's development over the next few days, but a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week
while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Mahoney

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Models are all over the place on this one.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the
far eastern Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit this
system's development over the next few days, but a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week
while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci