2025 TCR's

[Sciencerocks]

Well we have alvin. Super early!
 https://x.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1936094076534743286



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP012025_Alvin.pdf

50 knts/999 mb's for its peak.

[StormWeather]

Hurricane Flossie’s report is now out.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP062025_Flossie.pdf

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1950958204822655364

[CrazyC83]

Andrea's TCR was released.

Genesis moved up more than a full day.

[Sciencerocks]

Andrea's TCR was released.

Genesis moved up more than a full day.

Better But I'd have gone back to 18z the 22nd for tropical storm and peaked it at 40 knts. Either way they waited way too long to upgrade it.

[ljmac75]

Much more important TCR released on the same day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP042025_Dalila.pdf

27 kt winds on the coast of Mexico, big stuff.

[TallyTracker]

Andrea's TCR was released.

Genesis moved up more than a full day.

Better But I'd have gone back to 18z the 22nd for tropical storm and peaked it at 40 knts. Either way they waited way too long to upgrade it.

Did anyone else notice that the TCR shows Andrea going post-tropical by 18z on the 24th. The operational had the first advisory at 15z. I don’t recall ever seeing nearly the entire operational storm life eliminated by the TCR! lol

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032025_Cosme.pdf
Comse

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1967674940855083381

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/CP022025_Keli.pdf

Keli in the CPAC

[ljmac75]

Narda https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142025_Narda.pdf

[StormWeather]

Amid the insanity that is going on with Hurricane Melissa right now our second Atlantic TCR has dropped:

Tropical Storm Dexter
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042025_Dexter.pdf

[StormWeather]

Another one

Tropical Storm Ivo from the Eastern Pacific
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092025_Ivo.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is EPAC Cat 3 Hurricane Erick.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052025_Erick.pdf

[Teban54]

Here is EPAC Cat 3 Hurricane Erick.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052025_Erick.pdf

To clarify, the TCR has Erick peaking at Cat 4 and making landfall at Cat 3. No downgrades in category, but a slight downward adjustment of peak intensity from 125/939 (operational) to 120/944 (TCR). Landfall only saw changes in pressure, from 110/950 to 110/954, partially thanks to Josh's measurements.

[ljmac75]

Fernand and Barry:
Great discussion on Barry and the Texas flooding in that one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062025_Fernand.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022025_Barry.pdf

[Teban54]

Fernand and Barry:
Great discussion on Barry and the Texas flooding in that one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062025_Fernand.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022025_Barry.pdf

Barry and its remnants were not the primary cause of the devastating floods that occurred in the central Texas Hill Country on 4–5 July. Synoptic-scale flow drew deep tropical moisture spanning from the east Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean (Fig. 7) into the south central United States in early July. A link to additional information on that flooding event from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Austin/San Antonio, Texas, will be provided when it becomes available.

[Hurricanehink]

Fernand and Barry:
Great discussion on Barry and the Texas flooding in that one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062025_Fernand.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022025_Barry.pdf

Barry and its remnants were not the primary cause of the devastating floods that occurred in the central Texas Hill Country on 4–5 July. Synoptic-scale flow drew deep tropical moisture spanning from the east Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean (Fig. 7) into the south central United States in early July. A link to additional information on that flooding event from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Austin/San Antonio, Texas, will be provided when it becomes available.

Hmm, maybe not "primary", but it leaves room open that Barry was "a" cause. I still think there's a small chance Barry could be retired.

[ljmac75]

Fernand and Barry:
Great discussion on Barry and the Texas flooding in that one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062025_Fernand.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022025_Barry.pdf

Barry and its remnants were not the primary cause of the devastating floods that occurred in the central Texas Hill Country on 4–5 July. Synoptic-scale flow drew deep tropical moisture spanning from the east Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean (Fig. 7) into the south central United States in early July. A link to additional information on that flooding event from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Austin/San Antonio, Texas, will be provided when it becomes available.

Hmm, maybe not "primary", but it leaves room open that Barry was "a" cause. I still think there's a small chance Barry could be retired.

We could have a Dora situation, where the storm is really only a small factor in a much larger disaster but gets retired anyway due to the association.

[wwizard]

Barry and its remnants were not the primary cause of the devastating floods that occurred in the central Texas Hill Country on 4–5 July. Synoptic-scale flow drew deep tropical moisture spanning from the east Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean (Fig. 7) into the south central United States in early July. A link to additional information on that flooding event from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Austin/San Antonio, Texas, will be provided when it becomes available.

Hmm, maybe not "primary", but it leaves room open that Barry was "a" cause. I still think there's a small chance Barry could be retired.

We could have a Dora situation, where the storm is really only a small factor in a much larger disaster but gets retired anyway due to the association.

The problem with that is that the public didn’t associate Barry with the Texas floods until after the fact, and then it was mainly weather nerds like us and meteorologists who made the connection. Dora was at least talked about and known to be a player by the public as it was happening.

Also, part of the moisture from the Pacific was from the remnants of Flossie. Are they going to retire Flossie too?

Barry dissipated in the mountains of Mexico. It says as much in the TCR. I think there’s zero chance that any one of the powers that be are even thinking Barry should be considered for retirement.