EPAC: MARIO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES





Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025

The satellite presentation has improved with Mario during the day,
with a more circular central dense overcast and consistent
convection. A recent 1838Z GPM microwave pass also shows the
development of some inner-core features. Subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates range from 45-65 kt, a bit higher than earlier, so
the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory.

Mario is now moving northwestward (305/11 kt), steered between a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its
northwest. The most notable thing about the track forecast is what
happens when Mario becomes a remnant low in a couple of days.
Model guidance has been leaning more to the northeast during the
past few cycles as they seem to have caught onto a more vertically
intact Mario. While the new official forecast has been shifted to
the north, it remains on the western side of the model consensus,
closest to the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind solutions.

The intensity forecast is a little tricky for Mario with it soon
crossing into cooler waters with higher shear. While the forecast
shows weakening, it could hang on a bit stronger in the short-term
if it is able to take advantage of its primitive inner-core. Mario
should begin to weaken in earnest on Tuesday when it gets over cold
waters with much higher shear, causing it to lose convection in
about 36 h and totally dissipate by 72h. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, between the model consensus and the
HFIP Corrected Consensus model HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 20.8N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Putnam

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 115.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES




Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a
weakening trend. There has been a dramatic decrease in the
coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making
Dvorak classifications problematic. The lastest subjective and
objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt. Given the decrease in
convection, this may be a generous estimate. Hopefully an upcoming
scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of
the cyclone.

There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best
estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt. Mario should continue to
move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure
system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of
days. The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of
the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model,
HCCA, guidance.

Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next
couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below
24 deg C by late tomorrow. Moreover, increasingly strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system
for the next 48 hours. The official forecast calls for the system
to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current
trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than
that.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

...MARIO WEAKENING AND ITS TIME IS FLEETING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 115.7W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

After going a few hours with limited convection, Mario has had a
recent convective burst near its estimated center. Its structure
overall seems to be gradually degrading, with little in the way of
banding features, and it appears the tropical cyclone is slowly
succumbing to the increasingly negative thermodynamic conditions.
Both subjective and objective intensity estimates have been
decreasing, and the initial intensity will follow suit, lowering to
45 kt this advisory.

Without much recent microwave or scatterometer data to go on, the
estimated motion remains a somewhat uncertain 310/10 kt. Mario
should continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge centered over northern Mexico for the next day or so, but will
slow down as it loses its vertical structure. By the end of the
forecast the shallow low-level circulation will likely drift very
slowly. The latest track forecast is slightly west of the previous
one after 24 hours, electing to remain close to a blend of the
latest HCCA and GDMI guidance aids.

Mario is now crossing the 26 degree C sea-surface temperature
isotherm and cooler waters lie ahead, in addition to a stable dry
atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear. Thus, weakening
should continue, and Mario is likely to lose all of its organized
convection in about 24 hours as its mid-level circulation decouples
and continues propagating off to the north. The small remnant low
left behind should open up into a trough in 60-72 h. This forecast
is in good agreement with the intensity guidance aid envelope.

While Mario is forecast to dissipate as a tropical cyclone well to
the south of California, its remnant mid-level moisture will likely
spread further north, affecting portions of southern California and
Baja California later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 23.2N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 24.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 25.6N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 26.7N 120.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin