Non-tropical low off the North Carolina Coast

[ChrisH-UK]

There's a low off the coast of North Carolina that has healthy rotation and convection but is some what exposed to the south. Some of the weather stations have readings of 47mph and 45mph but a lot of stations have a lot less with winds in the 35 mph range.

[xironman]

Typical non-tropical low taking on tropical characteristics.

[StormWeather]

Typical non-tropical low taking on tropical characteristics.

The United Surface Analysis shows a front attached to it from the east.

But yes, this is like a PTC Eight paradox.

[LarryWx]

Joe Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1967892898000806394?

[xironman]

Typical non-tropical low taking on tropical characteristics.

The United Surface Analysis shows a front attached to it from the east.

But yes, this is like a PTC Eight paradox.

Sure, it is non-tropical originating from an old frontal boundary. But now with strong convection constantly building just north of the center there it is getting a bit more tropical. I have seen instances like this where they mark a potential STS to account for the extratropical nature of the low. VA Beach is going to have some nasty weather late today.

[StormWeather]

Typical non-tropical low taking on tropical characteristics.

The United Surface Analysis shows a front attached to it from the east.

But yes, this is like a PTC Eight paradox.

Sure, it is non-tropical originating from an old frontal boundary. But now with strong convection constantly building just north of the center there it is getting a bit more tropical. I have seen instances like this where they mark a potential STS to account for the extratropical nature of the low. VA Beach is going to have some nasty weather late today.

Maybe email the NHC and ask them about this low?

[Travorum]

Here's an ASCAT pass from overnight, if it can detach from the front this thing is classifiable. I'm not sure what the likelihood of that happening is, but it seems like a PTC advisory could be warranted.

[xironman]

The United Surface Analysis shows a front attached to it from the east.

But yes, this is like a PTC Eight paradox.

Sure, it is non-tropical originating from an old frontal boundary. But now with strong convection constantly building just north of the center there it is getting a bit more tropical. I have seen instances like this where they mark a potential STS to account for the extratropical nature of the low. VA Beach is going to have some nasty weather late today.

Maybe email the NHC and ask them about this low?

I'll let JB do that. Already flash flood warnings for VA Beach

* Flash Flood Warning for...
The Northern City of Chesapeake in southeastern Virginia...
The City of Norfolk in southeastern Virginia...
The City of Portsmouth in southeastern Virginia...
The City of Virginia Beach in southeastern Virginia...

* Until 1145 AM EDT.

* At 749 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.

[Teban54]

imagine this being named Gabrielle instead of 92L

[ChrisH-UK]

looking better now the sun is up does seem to be developing as the front move away with a lot of lightning happening.

GOES-19 Meso Sector 1 Red Band with GLM 1 hoor loop

[LarryWx]

Keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.

From Michael Ventrice:
Current satellite image... if quacks like a duck and walks like a duck...

https://x.com/MJVentrice/status/1967921607676236177?

[AnnularCane]

imagine this being named Gabrielle instead of 92L

Kind of hoping for it to be Humberto instead. (What can I say, I already think of 92L as Gabrielle. Don't mess with my head!)

Has anything ever been named without getting a colored circle first?

[TallyTracker]

This still looks frontal with a clear warm front to the northeast of the center. The ASCAT shows it clearly. While it is generating deep convection, I don’t think this pure warm core. If it can shed that front, perhaps an argument could be made for an STS, but currently I don’t believe this is classifiable. It looks more like an early season nor’easter.

With that said, worse looking systems have been classified (Andrea…cough cough) But with this impacting land, I imagine the NHC would let the gale warnings cover the impacts rather than switch course and cause confusion.

[LarryWx]

This still looks frontal with a clear warm front to the northeast of the center. The ASCAT shows it clearly. While it is generating deep convection, I don’t think this pure warm core. If it can shed that front, perhaps an argument could be made for an STS, but currently I don’t believe this is classifiable. It looks more like an early season nor’easter.

With that said, worse looking systems have been classified (Andrea…cough cough) But with this impacting land, I imagine the NHC would let the gale warnings cover the impacts rather than switch course and cause confusion.

It’s pretty clear it isn’t purely tropical. But could it possibly be considered subtropical? Does it have any tropical characteristics?

[TomballEd]

This still looks frontal with a clear warm front to the northeast of the center. The ASCAT shows it clearly. While it is generating deep convection, I don’t think this pure warm core. If it can shed that front, perhaps an argument could be made for an STS, but currently I don’t believe this is classifiable. It looks more like an early season nor’easter.

With that said, worse looking systems have been classified (Andrea…cough cough) But with this impacting land, I imagine the NHC would let the gale warnings cover the impacts rather than switch course and cause confusion.

It’s pretty clear it isn’t purely tropical. But could it possibly be considered subtropical? Does it have any tropical characteristics?

Very slightly not purely non-tropical.

[kevin]

12z ICON shows a solid portion of the storm having sustained 40 kt winds in the time period 3 - 9 hours from now as well as increased vorticity and a pressure around 1007 mb. The debate will not be about the wind speed or pressure, but rather whether it's tropical enough to get named. If so, it's definitely possible that we get a very brief Gabrielle from this.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's peaking in intensity now and will slowly weaken as it moves inland tonight. Clearly a frontal low. Cold front extends south to central FL and warm from off to the east. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s streaming into the low center now. It doesn't benefit anyone to have it named at this point.

[TallyTracker]

This still looks frontal with a clear warm front to the northeast of the center. The ASCAT shows it clearly. While it is generating deep convection, I don’t think this pure warm core. If it can shed that front, perhaps an argument could be made for an STS, but currently I don’t believe this is classifiable. It looks more like an early season nor’easter.

With that said, worse looking systems have been classified (Andrea…cough cough) But with this impacting land, I imagine the NHC would let the gale warnings cover the impacts rather than switch course and cause confusion.

It’s pretty clear it isn’t purely tropical. But could it possibly be considered subtropical? Does it have any tropical characteristics?

The convection near the center is the only tropical characteristic the system seems to have. Even that isn’t well organized due to shear. Non-tropical systems can produce deep convection as well so that alone is not enough for classification. The low is still broad with highest winds away from the center, and it is still entangled with fronts. The low would need to cutoff for even subtropical classification to be considered in my opinion. It’s still a very interesting system, but I think it is far from being a tropical cyclone.

That in no way negates the wind, surf and surge impacts it’s causing along the NC/VA coasts. Doesn’t take a tropical cyclone to do that.

[AJC3]

This is another frontal hybrid, which I've talked about on several occasions on the forum before. As long as there are fronts analyzed, this can be neither a TC nor a STC. I suppose one could argue the merits of NHC calling this a PTC and issuing advisories, however, since the impacts have been and continue to be properly handled by WPC and the local NWS offices using their suite of non-tropical products (i.e warnings)...

https://www.weather.gov/

...then the JBs of the world (and whomever else) can rage all they want until they're blue in the face.

As I've said before on here: All subtropical cyclones are hybrid, but not all hybrid cyclones are subtropical. In other words, {hybrid cyclones} = {subtropical cyclones} + {frontal hybrids}. In terms of the NWS mission of public safety, where a cyclone falls along this spectrum isn't nearly as important as it is that people are informed about their impacts.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, it's still attached to the stationary front, which makes it extratropical. I'm a bit surprised NHC isn't putting up an area for it, even if with low probs (something like 20/20).