Tropical Wave off the African Coast (0/20)

[colbroe]

A new area of intrest will emerge in a few days off the coast of Africa with a more Westerly motion .
This one the islands should take note of

[ElectricStorm]

Here it is

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[SconnieCane]

Is this the one that some of the hurricane models initialized for 92L showed becoming a beastly hurricane off to its southeast?

[Travorum]

Is this the one that some of the hurricane models initialized for 92L showed becoming a beastly hurricane off to its southeast?

Yeah, both HAFS parent domains showed development of this wave up until the 06z run today, with a W/WSW track through to the end of the run where it's at about 40/43W. Here's the trend:



Again the 06z HAFS runs didn't develop by the end of the run, neither did any of the HWRF runs, but that could also lead to later development closer to the islands depending on how big 92L's outflow gets. Definitely worth watching the trend on this.

[Teban54]

IIRC, the recent global model runs mostly have this recurve and follow the weakness opened by 92L, even in runs that do develop this AOI.

Of course, if development is delayed until the wave reaches further west, that may be a different question...

Some runs also merge this with a later wave that emerges from Africa around Friday, or kills this one in favor of the latter.

[MGC]

Already showing some decent spin. Might be a long tracker......MGC