2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET has two other TCs that develop in the E MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.5N 34.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 13.5N 34.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 13.8N 37.3W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 14.3N 40.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 15.0N 42.9W 1011 25
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 16.0N 46.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 16.7N 49.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 17.7N 51.8W 1011 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 14.7N 34.9W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 14.7N 37.3W 1009 36

[Blown Away]

The 0Z UKMET has two other TCs that develop in the E MDR:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.5N 34.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2025 96 13.5N 34.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 19.09.2025 108 13.8N 37.3W 1010 25
0000UTC 20.09.2025 120 14.3N 40.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 20.09.2025 132 15.0N 42.9W 1011 25
0000UTC 21.09.2025 144 16.0N 46.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 16.7N 49.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 17.7N 51.8W 1011 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 34.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 156 14.7N 34.9W 1011 33
0000UTC 22.09.2025 168 14.7N 37.3W 1009 36

GFS almost into October and not showing much, just constant low pressures moving off the SE CONUS one after another. Seems like there was much talk early on about a "Pattern setting up for CONUS/West landfalls" and the reality is nothing even close. Nice to get a break, for now, but worry something has to move all that SST heat out of the Caribbean/GOA.

[Steve H.]

Yes, there is a large eastern seaboard troughing going on and that should be present throughout this week. Storm deflection shield. But a lot of tropical moisture will lift northward this week. The Caribbean may be the focus during the upcoming month.

[TomballEd]

6Z Euro ensemble suggests 92L will have a little brother following.

[sasha_B]

6Z Euro ensemble suggests 92L will have a little brother following.

Fwiw, the Google DeepMind ensembles have also been showing some indication of at least one MDR system following closely behind 92L (developing somewhere in the 6～10-day timeframe).

[Stormlover70]

Gulf of Mexico is the place to watch in my opinion

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: again has a followup MDR TC (0Z actually had 2 followups):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 37.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2025 156 15.9N 37.2W 1012 31
1200UTC 22.09.2025 168 16.7N 39.4W 1011 32

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/KevinRi73294624/status/1967727202281329104

[TomballEd]

Hour 258, Euro ensembles have 4 sub-1000 mb lows. Eventually 2 sub 990 mb landfalls in Louisiana and one for Florida. Not a lot of ensemble members, 8% but unlike the GFS, when Euro ensembles start generating lows down there, even if only a few, I notice. 240 hour from Weather Nerds shows it starting.

[LarryWx]

Unlike like the last couple of runs, the 12Z UKMET has no followup TC to 92L.

[TomballEd]

Hour 258, Euro ensembles have 4 sub-1000 mb lows. Eventually 2 sub 990 mb landfalls in Louisiana and one for Florida. Not a lot of ensemble members, 8% but unlike the GFS, when Euro ensembles start generating lows down there, even if only a few, I notice. 240 hour from Weather Nerds shows it starting.

https://i.imgur.com/6zf74OY.png

GFS has a sub 1000 mb low in the Gulf. Has 8% 0Z EPS support.

[TomballEd]

Posted in wrong thread. GFS has a sub 1000 mb low that landfalls in SELA.

Right thread:
Hour 258, Euro ensembles have 4 sub-1000 mb lows. Eventually 2 sub 990 mb landfalls in Louisiana and one for Florida. Not a lot of ensemble members, 8% but unlike the GFS, when Euro ensembles start generating lows down there, even if only a few, I notice. 240 hour from Weather Nerds shows it starting.



Edit- This is sort of the right thread, 15 day ensembles shown.

[Stratton23]

lol 00z CMC has a hurricane moving north in the western gulf just off shore of mexico