EPAC: INVEST 96E - Discussion (80/80)

[Subtrop]

EP, 96, 2025091606, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1032W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, ep762025 to ep962025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep962025.dat

[cycloneye]

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico have become more concentrated over the past
several hours. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this broad system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite derived winds depict that the
low is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the circulation appears to be becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
the circulation appears to be becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or two while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central portion of the eastern Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or two, the system is forecast to
encounter progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a
drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which should inhibit any
additional development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Roberts