NATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[TomballEd]

This storm is massive! The circulation covers about 10 degrees of latitude and longitude! That may make development slower, but I’m interested in how the storm evolves as it gains latitude. Typically storms get larger as they enter the subtropics.

It is better viewed on the Tropical Tidbits Central Atlantic than the 92L floater because of the size. Overall center is still elliptical. I see the best track center and a more poorly defined center closer to 45W. Might take a day or two but unlike the last couple of invests this looks like a sure bet.

[Teban54]

This storm is massive! The circulation covers about 10 degrees of latitude and longitude! That may make development slower, but I’m interested in how the storm evolves as it gains latitude. Typically storms get larger as they enter the subtropics.

It is better viewed on the Tropical Tidbits Central Atlantic than the 92L floater because of the size. Overall center is still elliptical. I see the best track center and a more poorly defined center closer to 45W. Might take a day or two but unlike the last couple of invests this looks like a sure bet.

The "true color" option on Tropical Tidbits actually illustrates the extent and overall organization pretty well:

[TomballEd]

This storm is massive! The circulation covers about 10 degrees of latitude and longitude! That may make development slower, but I’m interested in how the storm evolves as it gains latitude. Typically storms get larger as they enter the subtropics.

It is better viewed on the Tropical Tidbits Central Atlantic than the 92L floater because of the size. Overall center is still elliptical. I see the best track center and a more poorly defined center closer to 45W. Might take a day or two but unlike the last couple of invests this looks like a sure bet.

The "true color" option on Tropical Tidbits actually illustrates the extent and overall organization pretty well:
https://i.postimg.cc/kX05S9ZR/goes19-truecolor-92-L-202509160945.gif

True color is from about 30W to 55 W, high res vis is 37W to 47W. Or you're right, true color is the better option, the vis is too zoomed in, seeing trees instead of forest.

[TomballEd]

About my strong and weaker low level centers in a broader ellipse.
 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1967964712613646834

[WaveBreaking]

Very large wave. Already looks way better than 91L did.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and the
Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next
day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Travorum]

Per ASCAT still a broad, very big trough. It'll get there eventually but between its size and upcoming interaction with the ULL to its north I would expect 92L to take a while to organize. This has the potential to be huge in the subtropics though.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

This one is no threat to the islands of the NE Caribbean, but we could be looking at a major hurricane passing east of Bermuda next Tuesday. It could track close enough to Bermuda to produce TS wind there.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and the
Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization during the
past 12 hours or so. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or
storm is expected to form in the next day or two as the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

On the virge to be a TD.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1968129981780988077

[zzzh]

Not a TD yet.

[sasha_B]

Up to 35 knots on ATCF Best Track:

92L INVEST 250917 0000 13.5N 43.6W ATL 35 1007

So, when it is designated, it'll likely go straight to Tropical Storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Convection is getting more concentrated, even if a bit shared.

[Subtrop]

AL, 07, 2025091706, , BEST, 0, 135N, 455W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, TRANSITIONED, alC22025 to al072025,

[Subtrop]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1968225162089652709

[cycloneye]