NATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I bet Bastardi will have a thing or two to say about this upgrade.

Followup:

JB was surprisingly quiet. All he said was this: “Now, the red-hatched area has been designated Tropical Depression 7, posing a threat to Bermuda but not the U.S.”

But then he immediately mentioned a possible unexpected “side-show Bob” to form off the SE US.

He was way too busy on another rant about the system off the VA capes.

[AnnularCane]

Oh my goodness! It’s actually starting to look like a TC now?!
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season can actually produce a TC? I’m shocked!

That sound you may have heard is Erin clearing her throat a few times.

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2025091800, , BEST, 0, 192N, 490W, 45, 1004, TS

[StormWeather]

Oh my goodness! It’s actually starting to look like a TC now?!
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season can actually produce a TC? I’m shocked!

That sound you may have heard is Erin clearing her throat a few times.

lol! You do have a point.

[Teban54]

But hey, at least nobody will say there's no circulation now

[zzzh]

[Hurricane2022]

But hey, at least nobody will say there's no circulation now

https://i.postimg.cc/CKdVGMRC/goes19-vis-swir-07-L-202509172025.gif

Why the hell this is moving SSW

[Steve H.]

It does look like she’s heading ssw!!

[CrazyC83]

I'd argue for a Subtropical Storm classification, even though that would be extremely rare in this part of the world. It's got a quasi-extratropical shape, but is non-frontal, producing deep convection and has a broad, but well defined, center.

[Hammy]

I'd argue for a Subtropical Storm classification, even though that would be extremely rare in this part of the world. It's got a quasi-extratropical shape, but is non-frontal, producing deep convection and has a broad, but well defined, center.

Would this possibly qualify as a monsoon depression of sorts (even if it's at storm intensity) like you'd see in the WPac/Indian Ocean?

[Kazmit]

Looked better as an invest than an actual TC

[wxman57]

Dry air and increased wind shear have taken their toll on Gabrielle overnight. I can't find any scatterometer hit, but I doubt there are any 35 kt winds remaining this morning. This was expected (at least by me), as wind shear and dry air were predicted to increase today. I doubt that the NHC will indicate much weakening, though. Personally, I'd call it a depression, and if the convection doesn't return soon, a remnant low.

[MarioProtVI]

Dry air and increased wind shear have taken their toll on Gabrielle overnight. I can't find any scatterometer hit, but I doubt there are any 35 kt winds remaining this morning. This was expected (at least by me), as wind shear and dry air were predicted to increase today. I doubt that the NHC will indicate much weakening, though. Personally, I'd call it a depression, and if the convection doesn't return soon, a remnant low.

NHC did forecast weakening so they seem to be in agreement with you on that. Most models have it looking like garbage until the weekend, where it should regenerate and restrengthen. It’ll most likely end up like Gabrielle did operationally in 2019 where it became a RL before regenerating (before TCR found it never actually did).

[wxman57]

Dry air and increased wind shear have taken their toll on Gabrielle overnight. I can't find any scatterometer hit, but I doubt there are any 35 kt winds remaining this morning. This was expected (at least by me), as wind shear and dry air were predicted to increase today. I doubt that the NHC will indicate much weakening, though. Personally, I'd call it a depression, and if the convection doesn't return soon, a remnant low.

NHC did forecast weakening so they seem to be in agreement with you on that. Most models have it looking like garbage until the weekend, where it should regenerate and restrengthen. It’ll most likely end up like Gabrielle did operationally in 2019 where it became a RL before regenerating (before TCR found it never actually did).

Yes, the NHC did indicate weakening, but not to a depression. They're always reluctant to indicate such weakening, it seems, as their mission is much different from that of a private company. We're not concerned about what the general public might think or whether they might not heed any warnings, we're looking out for our clients' interests. It would not serve our clients to call this a TS. The NHC has to be concerned about what people along its path might think. Maybe they wouldn't evacuate for a weakening storm.

[LarryWx]

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two.

[wxman57]

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two.

The issue with the NC/VA low was not its intensity or organization. The issue was that it was a frontal low not a tropical system.

[LarryWx]

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two.

The issue with the NC/VA low was not its intensity or organization. The issue was that it was a frontal low not a tropical system.

But Joe is essentially saying that if the no name storm wasn’t called a TC, (even he wasn’t necessarily saying it should have been named…he was kind of wishy-washy on that), why is this naked swirl still being called a TC? In other words, inconsistency/double standard.

Joe’s main objection over the years is that he feels the NHC has a tendency to name or maintain a name for borderline things in the middle of the ocean, but he also feels that they sometimes tend to avoid the same for near-shore systems. Inconsistency is his gripe.

[wxman57]

We just did get an ASCAT-B pass from a couple hours ago. It did have a pocket of 35-40kt wind well NE of the exposed center.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METB/zooms/WMBds99.png

[LarryWx]

We just did get an ASCAT-B pass from a couple hours ago. It did have a pocket of 35-40kt wind well NE of the exposed center.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METB/zooms/WMBds99.png

Thanks. But is that (a pocket of 35-40 knot winds well NE of an exposed center per an ASCAT pass from a couple of hours ago) enough to maintain it as a TS? You often have doubts about these kinds of things in your own posts.

[wxman57]

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system:

What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle

Then Joe compares satellite images of the two.

The issue with the NC/VA low was not its intensity or organization. The issue was that it was a frontal low not a tropical system.

But Joe is essentially saying that if the no name storm wasn’t called a TC, (even he wasn’t necessarily saying it should have been named…he was kind of wishy-washy on that), why is this naked swirl still being called a TC? In other words, inconsistency/double standard.

Joe’s main objection over the years is that he feels the NHC has a tendency to name or maintain a name for borderline things in the middle of the ocean, but he also feels that they sometimes tend to avoid the same for near-shore systems. Inconsistency is his gripe.

Yes, my main gripe is the inconsistency as well. There appear to be different standards for an upgrade vs. a downgrade. I can understand the NHC not wanting to say a hurricane approaching land is weakening, as people who were told to evacuate might return to the coast.