Tropical Wave along the West African coast (0/20)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this
weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible as
it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
this weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: TCG on Sun 9/21 with pretty brisk WNW movement in MDR to a few hundred miles ENE of the Leeward Islands on Wed 9/24:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.1N 33.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2025 84 14.1N 33.8W 1011 27
0000UTC 22.09.2025 96 14.3N 36.8W 1010 33
1200UTC 22.09.2025 108 14.5N 40.3W 1010 35
0000UTC 23.09.2025 120 15.6N 43.6W 1010 34
1200UTC 23.09.2025 132 16.9N 46.9W 1012 31
0000UTC 24.09.2025 144 18.2N 50.0W 1013 31
1200UTC 24.09.2025 156 19.6N 53.3W 1012 34
0000UTC 25.09.2025 168 20.5N 55.8W 1010 33

[cycloneye]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[TomballEd]

I'm taking the under. The MDR seems rather hostile near peak season. Thinking of the last lemon.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Some gradual
development of this system is possible over the weekend through the
middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake