NATL: GABRIELLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[TampaWxLurker]

From the 11am NHC discussion, emphasis mine:

Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for acouple more days,
meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its current intensity or weaken during that time.
It is even possible it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time.
Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will move into more
conducive conditions that persist into early next week, allowing Gabrielle to
organize and strengthen as it tracks north to northeastward.

[Ubuntwo]

But Joe is essentially saying that if the no name storm wasn’t called a TC, (even he wasn’t necessarily saying it should have been named…he was kind of wishy-washy on that), why is this naked swirl still being called a TC? In other words, inconsistency/double standard.

Joe’s main objection over the years is that he feels the NHC has a tendency to name or maintain a name for borderline things in the middle of the ocean, but he also feels that they sometimes tend to avoid the same for near-shore systems. Inconsistency is his gripe.

The NHC is very consistent about not naming frontal systems, no matter where they occur. Gabrielle isn't frontal at all. It also wasn't a naked swirl when it was named - that is a more recent development. They typically give about 18 hours operationally after loss of convection before marking a swirl post-tropical.

[TomballEd]

It looks like a post-tropical low already. Unless they count the convection well NE of the center, this is a naked swirl and I thought the rule was organization and convection. This has one but not the other and there would be days of advisories before Bermuda, at least as a PTC if needed.

[MGC]

Remnant low IMO. This is no longer a TC. If convection redevelops then restart advisories.......MGC

[Ubuntwo]

It looks like a post-tropical low already. Unless they count the convection well NE of the center, this is a naked swirl and I thought the rule was organization and convection. This has one but not the other and there would be days of advisories before Bermuda, at least as a PTC if needed.

Generally, those criteria apply for initial designation. The NHC gives two advisories after loss of convection before a system is marked post-tropical on the third. The timing can be tweaked in post.

[cycloneye]

I think we can ruturn to comment about TS Gabrielle, Thank you.

[Teban54]

Even though it's well expected that this would be the weakest point of Gabrielle's life with harshest conditions, I'm still amazed at how bad it is.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks pretty dead to me. I've very rarely seen storms that are this void of convection come back. It is possible, just not likely historically speaking

[LarryWx]

I think we can ruturn to comment about TS Gabrielle, Thank you.

Well, Luis, with it now a naked swirl, it no longer looks like a TS. I think most (and I assume you) agree on that.

As some others have said though, the model consensus has for at least a couple of days been suggesting it might weaken or at least struggle til a few days from now. So, this isn’t a total shock. We’ll have to see if the admittedly still well organized tight swirl will maintain itself until convection returns. They often spin down.

[zzzh]

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Even though it's well expected that this would be the weakest point of Gabrielle's life with harshest conditions, I'm still amazed at how bad it is.

https://i.postimg.cc/tRsx4qfG/goes19-truecolor-07-L-202509181325.gif

Definitely does not look tropical here.

[wxman57]

I think we can ruturn to comment about TS Gabrielle, Thank you.

Agree. This topic would be best placed in its own thread and out of the Gabrielle discussion.

[MGC]

Gabrielle is completely engulfed by dry air. What little convection that develops is quickly sheared away. Gabrielle's future is perilous at best. I think it will open into a trough in the next couple of days as I don't see the hostile environment Gabrielle is embedded in should persist longer than Gabrielle.......MGC

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Gabrielle is completely engulfed by dry air. What little convection that develops is quickly sheared away. Gabrielle's future is perilous at best. I think it will open into a trough in the next couple of days as I don't see the hostile environment Gabrielle is embedded in should persist longer than Gabrielle.......MGC

All the models had Gabrielle looking like this (devoid) for a while before it rejuvenates over the weekend. This isn’t a shock and I think saying it will open to a trough is a bit far fetched unless we start seeing every single model completely vanish it.

[wxman57]

Gabrielle is completely engulfed by dry air. What little convection that develops is quickly sheared away. Gabrielle's future is perilous at best. I think it will open into a trough in the next couple of days as I don't see the hostile environment Gabrielle is embedded in should persist longer than Gabrielle.......MGC

Yes, it has likely weakened since that 12Z ASCAT pass had some 35-40kt wind barbs. I think NHC will drop wind from 45 to 40 kts at 21Z, possibly down to 35 kts this evening. However, unless any scatterometer pass confirms that there are absolutely not any 35kt winds, NHC will keep it a TS. It may not move into a more favorable environment until Sunday afternoon.

[MGC]

Gabrielle is completely engulfed by dry air. What little convection that develops is quickly sheared away. Gabrielle's future is perilous at best. I think it will open into a trough in the next couple of days as I don't see the hostile environment Gabrielle is embedded in should persist longer than Gabrielle.......MGC

All the models had Gabrielle looking like this (devoid) for a while before it rejuvenates over the weekend. This isn’t a shock and I think saying it will open to a trough is a bit far fetched unless we start seeing every single model completely vanish it.

I wouldn't put too much faith in the models after they handled 91L. Gabrielle is in for a rough stretch...MGC

[Craters]

https://i.imgur.com/heKWhNf.png

Welp, that's a closed circulation. You have to give it that...

[Teban54]

It's not dead yet... It's still generating convection!