WPAC: NEOGURI - Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

21z. New peak intensity up to 95kt.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A. 25W (NEOGURI)

B. 18/2330Z

C. 23.7N

D. 161.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE
MET EQUALS 2.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPING 24-HOUR TREND AND THE PT EQUALS
3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LINER

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity is 115kt.

[Hayabusa]

00z Euro threatening the Okinawa islands

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

A. 25W (NEOGURI)

B. 19/1130Z

C. 24.8N

D. 159.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/PRXY/MHS

H. REMARKS...15/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED
ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 24 HOUR TREND. THE PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

19/0931Z 24.7N 159.2E MHS


...MONAGHAN

[cycloneye]

JMA up to Severe Tropical Storm.

T2519(Neoguri)
Issued at 2025/09/19 10:15 UTC
Analysis at 09/19 09 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°25′ (24.4°)
E159°50′ (159.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E280 km (150 NM)
W220 km (120 NM)

[cycloneye]

25W NEOGURI 250919 1200 24.7N 159.0E WPAC 60 990

[cycloneye]

An eye feature tries to appear.

[cycloneye]

[Travorum]

Microwave pass from 10hrs ago. Neoguri has a nice structure under the hood with a cyan ring on the 37GHz imagery, and the IR appearance has only improved since.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1969092755478487410

[sasha_B]

25W NEOGURI 250919 1800 25.1N 158.0E WPAC 65 986

Now a typhoon on ATCF. (JMA still has Severe Tropical Storm)

[Hayabusa]

Up to TY

WTPQ52 ‎RJTD ‎191800
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TY ‎2519 ‎NEOGURI ‎(2519) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎191800UTC ‎25.0N ‎158.5E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎985HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎065KT
GUST ‎ ‎095KT
50KT ‎ ‎40NM
30KT ‎ ‎150NM
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎200600UTC ‎25.5N ‎155.9E ‎30NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎12KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎070KT
GUST ‎ ‎100KT
24HF ‎ ‎201800UTC ‎26.2N ‎154.0E ‎42NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎960HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎080KT
GUST ‎ ‎115KT
48HF ‎ ‎211800UTC ‎28.6N ‎150.6E ‎70NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎10KT
PRES ‎ ‎940HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎095KT
GUST ‎ ‎135KT
72HF ‎ ‎221800UTC ‎29.8N ‎150.6E ‎120NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎940HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎095KT
GUST ‎ ‎135KT
96HF ‎ ‎231800UTC ‎30.4N ‎152.2E ‎175NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎ENE ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎955HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎080KT
GUST ‎ ‎115KT
120HF ‎241800UTC ‎30.6N ‎153.6E ‎250NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎E ‎SLOWLY
PRES ‎ ‎970HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎070KT
GUST ‎ ‎100KT ‎=

[cycloneye]

The eye is slowly clearing.

[cycloneye]

[ElectricStorm]

Up to Cat 2 now

25W NEOGURI 250920 0600 25.9N 156.1E WPAC 85 970

Appearance is looking great, RI likely underway. This and Ragasa should be the first WPAC storms this year to hit Cat 4+

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]