NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1969315715824955493

[Category5Kaiju]

Welp....another example of, "just because a storm looks crappy now doesn't mean it will a day later."

[StormWeather]

Welp....another example of, "just because a storm looks crappy now doesn't mean it will a day later."

It looks like a high end tropical storm now, and I wonder what recon will find when they get there.

[Kazmit]

Surely not 45kts anymore.

[StormWeather]

Surely not 45kts anymore.

Yeah, I’m thinking 50-55 kts right now, but we will see what recon finds.

[Teban54]

[StormWeather]

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv8fn2F1/goes19-ir-07-L-202509200955.gif

Outflow to the north looks like it’s getting better defined and I can some spiraling going on. This storm definitely has the look of a slow-going intensifying storm atm.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

Cool

[chaser1]

Hmmm, looks like the beginning of a pinhole eye - 24.95 N and 58.50 W (give or take a hundred feet or so). That along with a new tower going off right of center

[Travorum]

Looks to be about 998mb and 50-55kts per recon so far.

154900 2456N 05832W 7515 02492 9979 +174 +105 136008 016 /// /// 03
155030 2455N 05826W 7528 02510 0062 +128 +149 211055 059 /// /// 05

I'm interested in what the winds look like in the NE.

[StormWeather]

Hmmm, looks like the beginning of a pinhole eye - 24.95 N and 58.50 W (give or take a hundred feet or so). That along with a new tower going off right of center

Erin-redux much?

[mitchell]

It's interesting how the system seems/seemed large in it's formative stages, but the GFS model forecasts at peak intensity/closest approach to be a pretty small system, at least it's wind field. The NWS is talking about large swells affecting the East Coast of the US but the current swell models, and this small scale windfield suggest otherwise.

[chaser1]

Yeah, quite a different storm structure then Erin. Shouldn't result in anything close to the coastal impacts that Erin had. Erin's wind field was huge and well established for a greater duration of time than Gabrielle will have, prior to being caught and diverted northeastward by the Westerlies.

[chaser1]

Surely not 45kts anymore.

Nothing like a little RI before lunch
What time is recon estimated to arrive? Right now I'd guess winds to be 90 mph, perhaps higher.

[sasha_B]

Surely not 45kts anymore.

Nothing like a little RI before lunch
What time is recon estimated to arrive? Right now I'd guess winds to be 90 mph, perhaps higher.

Recon is in-storm and has only measured 60-kt flight level winds and a central pressure (extrap.) of 998 hPa as of the first center pass. Gabrielle is intensifying, but I'm not seeing much indication of RI at the moment.

[chaser1]

I expect NHC to put out a Special Update advisory fairly soon for Gabrielle being upgraded to a hurricane (prior to recon reaching the center).

[chaser1]

Surely not 45kts anymore.

Nothing like a little RI before lunch
What time is recon estimated to arrive? Right now I'd guess winds to be 90 mph, perhaps higher.

Recon is in-storm and has only measured 60-kt flight level winds and a central pressure (extrap.) of 998 hPa as of the first center pass. Gabrielle is intensifying, but I'm not seeing much indication of RI at the moment.

Hmmm, I've got to wonder whether their pass was east of the apperant eye?

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t know how likely it is that Gabrielle retains a core that small, given that they tend to be very vulnerable to collapse if conditions aren’t perfect, and it’s currently rather weak on the southwest side. That said, even if the small core does collapse I wouldn’t expect a new core to be very large, and given the smaller size I think Gabrielle does have a chance to overperform. No question its appearance has significantly improved since yesterday and the lightning near the core suggests it continues to not waste time.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1969448238408204781