Tropical Wave east of the Leeward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

East of the Windward Islands:
Another tropical wave located more than 500 miles to the east of the
Windward Islands is currently is producing a small area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves quickly westward.
Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the wave does not have
a closed circulation. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally conducive for further development over the next several
days as the wave continues to move quickly westward to west-
northwestward at around 20 mph. By the latter part of this week,
the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward to
the north of Hispaniola. Regardless of development, the system is
expected to bring gusty winds and showers for portions of the
Leeward Islands on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[BobHarlem]

RIght now, only the GFS is showing much with this:


This and the other wave are going to get mixed up a lot. CMC/Euro shows this area on the 850 as well.

Less than A week out and it's still confusing on the models.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS are moderately noisy with this fwiw.

[TomballEd]

RIght now, only the GFS is showing much with this:
https://i.postimg.cc/h4mHYVfw/gfs-mslp-wind-us-fh102-180.gif

This and the other wave are going to get mixed up a lot. CMC/Euro shows this area on the 850 as well.

Less than A week out and it's still confusing on the models.

I posted the mid-level RH from the GFS on the Orange thread, that system seems to 'jump' forward to a tail of higher mid level humidity extending from Gabrielle but looking closer there is vorticity where the lemon is.. I noted my confusion in that thread. A second AOI and a double check of satellite/CIMMS shows the lemon wave. Looking it over, maybe the GFS New England near miss is this new lemon. Just going off the GFS, the lemon has a better chance of development than the mandarin.

The more westward lemon has more convection and shear should improve markedly as the outflow from Gabrielle moves away.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing scattered disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for slow development over the next several days as the wave moves
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the
latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and
turn more northwestward to the north of Hispaniola. Regardless of
development, gusty winds and showers are expected for portions of
the Leeward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

Even though this is currently heavily sheared, it’s looking pretty feisty so it wouldn’t surprise me if the GFS is right, May even try to start developing before even the GFS does for this if this type of convection persist

[BobHarlem]

Only a little over 5 days out...

[BobHarlem]

Outer banks landfall on the 0z gfs one week from now.

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS also shows a OBX landfall. The euro develops the eastern system, but not this one, the euro does show up more on the vorticity though, and that energy gets blocked then pushed west into New Smyrna Beach, reverse I4 into the Gulf and gets sheared apart. Some very interesting dynamics between this and the other wave.
6z gfs:


0z euro:

[cycloneye]

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent

[GCANE]

ICON and GFS kinda agrees with each other.
Watching if they task recon today.

[zzzh]

06z AI models trended west, both ECAI and FNV3 have members developing in the Gulf/Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

I guess the invest will be up later today or tonight.

A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA
INTO SYSTEM NEAR 19.5N 67.5W FOR 24/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND THE
SYSTEM FOR 25/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 24/1730Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO THE SYSTEM
FOR 25/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 25/0800Z.

[AnnularCane]

Shouldn't the cherry one be made an invest first?

[wzrgirl1]

Is this one expected to curve out to sea or go into the Gulf?

[Teban54]

Is this one expected to curve out to sea or go into the Gulf?

If you trust GFS, it may be a threat to the East Coast of CONUS. How much impacts is the question.

0z Euro brings the vorticity back into the Gulf (after getting north to as much as Bahamas), where it dies without development.

[cycloneye]

Shouldn't the cherry one be made an invest first?

The cherry one looks to move in open waters while this wave will move much closer to populated areas.

[Blown Away]

06z AI models trended west, both ECAI and FNV3 have members developing in the Gulf/Caribbean.

06z FNV3 significant W shift, but tracks all over the place.

[AnnularCane]

Shouldn't the cherry one be made an invest first?

The cherry one looks to move in open waters while this wave will move much closer to populated areas.

Don't know why I didn't think of that.

[Pelicane]

06z AI models trended west, both ECAI and FNV3 have members developing in the Gulf/Caribbean.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/T171rCNK/06Z-FNV3.jpg [/url]
06z FNV3 significant W shift, but tracks all over the place.

Now that's a Spaghetti plot