NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

07L GABRIELLE 250922 0600 29.7N 62.4W ATL 75 981

[abajan]

So Gabrielle finally woke up. With no significant impacts to land in the immediate forecast, I’m glad to see it.

Not necessarily. The westernmost islands of the Azores may experience sustained tropical-storm-force winds (possibly gusting to hurricane force) early on Friday morning—local time. When I asked Google AI Does the National Hurricane Center provide forecast guidance for the Azores?, it/he/she ( ) replied that it does. As such, I guess one would expect the line on Bermuda in the public advisory to soon be updated to Interests in Bermuda and the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Great images of the eye from Bermuda radar:

[kevin]

Eye clearing out better on IR and VIS, raw T# shoot up to 5.8. CDO temperature has fallen to -68C. Could be a MH within 12 hours imo.

[Kazmit]

80 kts you say?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Radar appearance continues to improve through the morning. I think we could see Cat 3 at the next update:

[kevin]

Hmm I retract my previous statement, Gabrielle might already be around MH intensity, raw T# up to a very impressive 6.2.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Bermuda having the luckiest season so far. Majors on both sides.

[zzzh]

...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

[MarioProtVI]

...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
9:00 AM AST Mon Sep 22
Location: 30.6°N 62.2°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

Hurricane Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

Satellite images indicate that Gabrielle has rapidly intensified
into a major hurricane with a well-defined eye. The current
intensity is set to 105 kt, a blend of constrained Dvorak estimates
of about 100 kt with higher Data-T values of 115 kt. Further
intensification is expected today, and the intensity forecast is
raised for the first 24 hours, then kept the same afterwards.
Small changes were made to the wind radii to account for the
stronger hurricane.

No changes were required to the track forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gusty winds and showers will be possible across Bermuda today
and tonight as Hurricane Gabrielle passes by to the east.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east
coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as
Atlantic Canada, and should continue during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1300Z 30.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[Teban54]

From Cat 1 straight to Cat 3 in a special advisory.

Overachiever.

[MGC]

From an ugly duckling to a majestic hurricane. Naked swirl to major. Gabrielle found the sweet spot......MGC

[Travorum]

[AnnularCane]

She was a beautiful naked swirl.

[Teban54]

Eye continues to clear out.

[TomballEd]

This is more like it. OT- Will Extra-Tropical Gabrielle become a North Sea gale center?

[Woofde]

She was a beautiful naked swirl.

I much prefer her with a little meat on her bones , very pretty mid lattitude hurricane.

[mitchell]

Got to give the NHC credit - they suggested this 24 hours ago:

From the 11:00 A.M. SUNDAY advisory:

Both HAFS-A/B are explicitly forecasting rapid intensification
over the next 24 hours, and given the improving inner core
structure, this seems like a reasonable prediction. Thus, the
NHC intensity forecast will now forecast rapid intensification over
the next 24 h, and peaking Gabrielle as a 95 kt hurricane in 36 h.
This value is on the high side of the intensity guidance, but not as
high as the latest HAFS-A/B runs which both show it becoming a
major hurricane in 36 hours, and that remains a possibility.

[cycloneye]

NOAA3 caught an EWRC going on.