2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TomballEd]

If we were having the predicted hurricane season, 2 week off hour GFS forecasts would not be getting much oxygen.

[TomballEd]

If the GFS is correct, out toward silly season and all (I consider 240 hours and beyond silly season), but maybe we get the traditional Florida October hurricane. I'm not all the way out to 16 days, but there is a break in the ridge that should allow the recurve into the E. Gulf. Still S of W Cuba but I'm going to lunch w/ my daughter.

[Teban54]

Full run of 12z GFS, including the continued insistence of the 10/40 AOI being an East Coast threat, and a fantasy-range October WCar monster:

[Teban54]

I think 12z ICON now fits this thread.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JVpL69W/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh51-180.gif

I put the 12z ICON runs in Crazy Model Runs earlier... But now 12z CMC also bombs out both 93L and 94L while they're very close to each other.

(Technically it only gets them down to 980s and 970s, but that's very strong by CMC standards.)

[ChrisH-UK]

Here is Google Weather Lab ML model runs on the 2 systems with intensity forecasts.

[kevin]

00z Euro ensemble says it's go time, probably the most active Euro ensemble so far this season. It shows at least one TC (93L or 94L) becoming a MH, perhaps both. And has two more waves with some support in the MDR as well as some disturbances in the Gulf. Note that the first of the upcoming MDR waves as well as the Gulf members already develop at +5 days. Still awfully quiet in the WCar, where the big players usually are in October. But there's still plenty of time for some scary stuff there later next month.

[skillz305]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

[CFLHurricane]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

The first of many, no doubt

Is there even an extant wave to seed such a monstrosity?

[SFLcane]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

Nice one gfs very silly but its 100% fake typical bias in this area i am sure it will not be the last one. You can see the vort shoot out from the venezuelan coast.

[chaser1]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

Nice one gfs very silly but its 100% fake typical bias in this area i am sure it will not be the last one. You can see the vort shoot out from the venezuelan coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/hPKC17Ch/IMG-1217.gif

I'm sure it'll disappear from this mornings 12Z GFS run. I plan on finishing my day early today, just so I can be home and make myself a Bloody Mary, kick back and enjoy the GFS Happy Hour "pin the Cat 5 on your favorite city" game
18Z Predicted landfall: Key West!

[Travorum]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

Nice one gfs very silly but its 100% fake typical bias in this area i am sure it will not be the last one. You can see the vort shoot out from the venezuelan coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/hPKC17Ch/IMG-1217.gif

Right on schedule on October 1st for the GFS

[ConvergenceZone]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

I've given up on the GFS to be honest with you. I mean just a couple of days ago it had a monster cane in the Gulf of Mexico and that suddenly vanished. It just seems very flakey this year, so I stopped paying attention to it.

[TomballEd]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

I've given up on the GFS to be honest with you. I mean just a couple of days ago it had a monster cane in the Gulf of Mexico and that suddenly vanished. It just seems very flakey this year, so I stopped paying attention to it.

Ensembles, especially after 240 hours.

[StPeteMike]

If 94L fails to develop, it would be fitting the dreaded I storm would develop and slam into West Florida as a major.

But as others have said, it has been pretty unreliable to trust the models this year.

[zzzh]

AI models seem to favor the EPAC side for development in the next 2 weeks, if it verifies then the Caribbean will be quiet.

[MetroMike]

I know it’s 300+ hours out… but 06Z GFS has a major hitting south Florida from a storm that develops south of Cuba

Nice one gfs very silly but its 100% fake typical bias in this area i am sure it will not be the last one. You can see the vort shoot out from the venezuelan coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/hPKC17Ch/IMG-1217.gif

I'm sure it'll disappear from this mornings 12Z GFS run. I plan on finishing my day early today, just so I can be home and make myself a Bloody Mary, kick back and enjoy the GFS Happy Hour "pin the Cat 5 on your favorite city" game
18Z Predicted landfall: Key West!

Well you pinned the location but not as strong as you predicted.

Not bad

[Teban54]

For funsies only:

[chaser1]

Nice one gfs very silly but its 100% fake typical bias in this area i am sure it will not be the last one. You can see the vort shoot out from the venezuelan coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/hPKC17Ch/IMG-1217.gif

I'm sure it'll disappear from this mornings 12Z GFS run. I plan on finishing my day early today, just so I can be home and make myself a Bloody Mary, kick back and enjoy the GFS Happy Hour "pin the Cat 5 on your favorite city" game
18Z Predicted landfall: Key West!

Well you pinned the location but not as strong as you predicted.

Not bad

Thanks lol! What can I say....i have GFS in my veins

[chaser1]

Can't put too much stock into the long range GFS, let alone a Happy Hour forecast but one thing should be considered. The updated 18Z moved the Florida landfall clock forward in time. Just have to sit back and see whether GFS can maintain any model consistency. More importantly, whether ICON or EURO eventually come on board. Until then, pass the popcorn

[DorkyMcDorkface]

CMC thinks we might have a shot at MDR development in a few days. This also has modest EPS support. Would continue the theme of October MDR development we've been seeing in recent seasons.