NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherBoy2000]

Boy, the upper level winds are ripping! Given it's overall appearance, upper level conditions, near term land interaction, and GFS suggesting that 94L will become absorbed by 93L.... I'd reconsider the odds for development to be "a generous" 10/50.

Keep in mind this not expected to develop until at least this weekend and the nhc only has it at a 30% for the next couple days. This could bust completely but the gfs has so far been on island in showing absolutely no development at all. With that said, it looks like 94l should be the dominant system.

[chaser1]

Boy, the upper level winds are ripping! Given it's overall appearance, upper level conditions, near term land interaction, and GFS suggesting that 94L will become absorbed by 93L.... I'd reconsider the odds for development to be "a generous" 10/50.

Keep in mind this not expected to develop until at least this weekend and the nhc only has it at a 30% for the next couple days. This could bust completely but the gfs has so far been on island in showing absolutely no development at all. With that said, it looks like 94l should be the dominant system.

Exactly, thus the 10% chance of 48 hr. development. 94L is not presently the dominant disturbance nor do I think that it will be. Pick your favorite model and model run though, the possibilities are endless LOL.

[wxman57]

I just don't know about this disturbance. The GFS could have the best solution, strong shear drives it NE to merge with 93L (a TS by Friday). Lots of SW shear across the Bahamas and along the east coast.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased but remain disorganized in
association with a tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10 to
15 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic
beginning tonight. The system is then expected to slow down and
turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic late
this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is en route to perform a system survey to gather
data from the surrounding environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[TomballEd]

Can't tell if there is mid-level spin. I can tell it will rain a lot in any mountainous area 94L crosses.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar out of Puerto Rico has a circulation south of Puerto Rico and 94L is having a lot of convection at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a name very soon.

[Hurricane2022]

I just don't know about this disturbance. The GFS could have the best solution, strong shear drives it NE to merge with 93L (a TS by Friday). Lots of SW shear across the Bahamas and along the east coast.

Wxman57, do you think there's any chance of 94L ending up in the Gulf?

[Hurricane Mike]

This is a very interesting setup. Here is an evening video update.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nufxPA-0T7A

[cycloneye]

Looks better.

[Weathertracker96]

Looks better.

https://i.imgur.com/8z0feIL.gif

Does it look like it’s forming further south to you? Concerning as that could change the model runs & eventual track.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since
yesterday in association with a tropical wave centered near Puerto
Rico. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward around 10
to 15 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds across Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic through early tomorrow. The system
is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely
to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas late
this week. Interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

[BobHarlem]

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the north that is shearing 93L may be forcing 94L to develop further south where the convection can persist. Hard to tell what the surface pressure gradient looks like, but lots of flood potential for the islands.

The high resolution models must be running on salvaged IBM Deep Blue hardware, maybe stole some of the software as well. Combine that with a Schema viewer from the old Search for ET Data Base. I doubt they still use crystal resonance to chop anything in a serial fashion. Come to think of it they probably don't use photons either.

[BobHarlem]

0z (and even 12z) GFS had 94l north of Puerto Rico right now, so it may be developing quite a bit further south than a lot of the models were thinking based on the sat and radar right now.

[Weathertracker96]

0z (and even 12z) GFS had 94l north of Puerto Rico right now, so it may be developing quite a bit further south than a lot of the models were thinking based on the sat and radar right now.

I guess tonight will give us better idea on where this may form. Hopefully models catch on to whichever solution so everyone will have a better idea

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2025092500, , BEST, 0, 178N, 677W, 25, 1011, DB

[BobHarlem]

94L satellite eyeball look vs Humberto is kinda striking right now. Will be interesting to see how it stacks up in the morning.

[BobHarlem]

ascat

[Hurricane Mike]

I am skeptical of the GFS showing a strengthening dangerous hurricane over the Bahamas suddenly being sucked into Humberto. If it were just a wave, sure...but if 94L is a well established hurricane by that time, I highly doubt that it just gets sucked away.