NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Based on afternoon pop up convection, it looks like mid/upper-level vort is centered in the Windward Passage.

[MGC]

Nothing but lite east winds along the north shore of the DR this afternoon. I don't see any evidence of a low level circulation forming, I guess that is why NHC cancelled recon today. Perhaps tomorrow or Saturday a low can form once 94L moves away from the shredder......MGC

[GCANE]

I think if anything pops up around the NW tip of Haiti we could see a fast spin up.
Maybe overnight or near dawn.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The 925 and 850 vorticity is over Hispaniola. The 700mb vorticity is just east of the DR.

[wzrgirl1]

Does anyone think southeast Florida Dade/Broward will be under any Watches due to future Imelda?

[skillz305]

Does anyone think southeast Florida Dade/Broward will be under any Watches due to future Imelda?

Scary part is nobody knows for sure how close off the coast of Florida it will get. I hope it doesn’t pull a Matthew 2016

[ScottNAtlanta]

Accuweather discussion on 94L


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=vCh7l84UYuU

[wzrgirl1]

Does anyone think southeast Florida Dade/Broward will be under any Watches due to future Imelda?

Scary part is nobody knows for sure how close off the coast of Florida it will get. I hope it doesn’t pull a Matthew 2016

So scary. I also think of Charlie and how he made that unexpected right hook into southwest Florida.

[GCANE]

Sudden shift in winds between Haiti and Jamacia.

[cycloneye]

Sudden shift in winds between Haiti and Jamacia.

Any graphic?

[CourierPR]

Does anyone think southeast Florida Dade/Broward will be under any Watches due to future Imelda?

Scary part is nobody knows for sure how close off the coast of Florida it will get. I hope it doesn’t pull a Matthew 2016

So scary. I also think of Charlie and how he made that unexpected right hook into southwest Florida.

Check out today's post on Facebook by Bryan Norcross. It is quite interesting.

[Blown Away]

Sudden shift in winds between Haiti and Jamacia.

Where do you think the broad COC is (lat/long)?? You are good at finding that.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2025092518, , BEST, 0, 205N, 717W, 25, 1011, DB

[GCANE]

Sudden shift in winds between Haiti and Jamacia.

Any graphic?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Sudden shift in winds between Haiti and Jamacia.

Where do you think the broad COC is (lat/long)?? You are good at finding that.

Somewhere south of Windward Passage and north of Tiburon Peninsula

[chaser1]

Sudden shift in winds between Haiti and Jamacia.

Any graphic?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Looks like one of several LLC's that ultimately continued westward as a naked swirl as result of the UL wind shear

[skillz305]

Is any further west track still likely to stay clear of Florida? How is the ULL looking?

[LarryWx]

The MJO for 9/27 through 10/3 or 10/4 is again being forecasted by GEFS and EPS to be in phase 2, which is about tied for the most dangerous phase along with 8 for Conus H landfalls and by a large margin the most dangerous for Conus MH landfalls.

MH Conus landfalls since 1974 during phase 2
-Ida (2021)
-Michael (2018)
-Irma (2017)
-Harvey (2017)
-Ivan (2004)
-Bret (1999)
-Emily (1993)
-Hugo (1989)
-Frederic (1979)
-Eloise (1975)
-Carmen (1974)

That’s 11 of 29 (38%) of all Conus MH hits since 1974 just during phase 2. These were all during Jul-Oct. During Jul-Oct 1974-2024, 16% of days were in phase 2. So, even after taking into account the fact that the # of days in phase 2 has been about the largest of any one phase along with phase 1, the 38% of all MH hits is still very high. If phase 2 were instead a neutral influence, one would expect the # of MH hits to be ~3-5.

[wxman57]

Does anyone think southeast Florida Dade/Broward will be under any Watches due to future Imelda?

I see no threat to Florida. Maybe 25 mph northerly wind along the coast as it passes this weekend.

[chaser1]

Does anyone think southeast Florida Dade/Broward will be under any Watches due to future Imelda?

PTC Advisories could be initially hoisted for coastal regions of Dade & Broward but I think any T.S. Watches or Warnings would be limited to Palm Beach County and northward. Everything is so dependant on any unexpected delay for 94L to begin consolidating but primary wind threat will probably be limited to the coast and offshore waters from the Cape north to JAX. If the storm forms as forecast, I doubt any T.S. Watches will occur for Miami-Dade or Broward. Unexpected development "south" of Hispanola OR a further west tracking Humberto could change everything though.