NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Here is my tropical update on #94L. #tropics #imelda

https://youtu.be/HtTJnhIal9U

[TTARider]

am I the only one who thinks this system may Init on or just below the current forecasted init? looks broad right now.

[wxman57]

I think that the only TS watches initially will be for the Bahamas. Any TS wind for Florida is more than 48 hrs away. It may not have much of a western side initially.

[galaxy401]

Will this disturbance be potentially weaker if Humberto strengthens faster then expected?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Nimbus]

Will this disturbance be potentially weaker if Humberto strengthens faster then expected?

It will be potentially weaker if the trough off Texas digs deep into the gulf.
We've seen that happen with October storms before.
poof

[tolakram]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=lPmMFuCWeBo

[CrazyC83]

At this point, it may end up in the eastern Gulf?

I agree that there will be a stall at some point. Could Diana 1984 be an analog?

[BobHarlem]

No PTC yet, which is odd considering it'll be in the Bahamas in about 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

No PTC yet, which is odd considering it'll be in the Bahamas in about 24 hours.

They may be waiting for it to get away from Hispañiola and recon will be there to do the low level invest on friday afternoon.

[TomballEd]

No PTC yet, which is odd considering it'll be in the Bahamas in about 24 hours.

They may be waiting for it to get away from Hispañiola and recon will be there to do the low level invest on friday afternoon.

They don't need a closed circulation that recon could find for a PTC. The whole reason for the PTC. To issue watches and warnings for a storm that has not yet formed but has a high probability of forming. I wonder if the government of Bahamas did not want to issue warnings.

[Blown Away]

AL, 94, 2025092518, , BEST, 0, 205N, 717W, 25, 1011, DB

Not much of a circulation and to me it's moving almost due W and a pretty raid pace.

[Buck]

To me it looks like if it has a semi-defined center, it looks like its currently over the DR, despite what NHC is showing as a bit further north. I'm not sure we are going to see it classified until at least tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Right on que at sunset, big blowup over Haiti.
A done deal once it gets over water

[GCANE]

LLC at 20N 73.3W, NW tip of Haiti

I would name it once it hits the water


https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 0_swnd.gif

[Woofde]

LLC at 20N 73.3W, NW tip of Haiti

I would name it once it hits the water


https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 0_swnd.gif

It seems like a prime candidate for PTC at the minimum.

[Hurricane Mike]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnbOz-4vtrA

Video on 94L

[Beef Stew]

Also in agreement with others- not quite sure why this isn’t a PTC given the likelihood of impacts in the Bahamas within a day. Maybe the NHC is planning to just go ahead and pull the trigger on naming this at the next advisory instead, but it doesn’t seem to be quite there yet structurally.

[Blown Away]

LLC at 20N 73.3W, NW tip of Haiti

I would name it once it hits the water


https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 0_swnd.gif

Nice find! I do think ultimately 94L and Humberto will find enough separation to avoid this fujiwara scenario. I think the separation will be 94L finding itself farther W over the next 36 hours. If your NW tip of Haiti is right then it’s an already a degree farther S and W than predicted.

[wxman57]

At this point, it may end up in the eastern Gulf?

I agree that there will be a stall at some point. Could Diana 1984 be an analog?

Eastern Gulf would be very, very unlikely.