NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Travorum]

With the eye emerging the Raw T# has shot up to 5.3 and if convection can deepen in the NE Humberto will be close to an adequately thick B ring.

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?stormid=AL082025&band=02&length=24

[tolakram]

That looks close to a major hurricane IMO.

[Hurricane2022]

For God sake, NHC... cmon guys, send a recon for this

[sasha_B]

For God sake, NHC... cmon guys, send a recon for this

Probably 94L is the much higher priority, as beautiful as Humberto is.

[aspen]

Any idea why recon hasn’t been scheduled for Humberto yet? It’s certainly close enough for some flights, and an UL mission was already sent out. Even 94L isn’t getting a ton yet.

I have a bad feeling we may get another Sam ‘21 situation where poorly scheduled recon leads to the NHC missing a potential Cat 5 peak.

[TallyTracker]

The shear is totally gone now! Great outflow in all quadrants. This looks like it will be a high-end major before this is all said and done.

[tolakram]

Any idea why recon hasn’t been scheduled for Humberto yet? It’s certainly close enough for some flights, and an UL mission was already sent out. Even 94L isn’t getting a ton yet.

I have a bad feeling we may get another Sam ‘21 situation where poorly scheduled recon leads to the NHC missing a potential Cat 5 peak.

No danger to any populated areas yet. I think we'll have recon well before this threatens Bermuda, possibly earlier if they think it will help forecast 94L.

[Travorum]

Eye temp is 10.79 degrees in the latest frame.

[sasha_B]

Recon resources are probably better applied to the (soon-to-be) storm that's an immediate landfall threat to at least the Bahamas and likely Georgia and/or the Carolinas as well. That said, it would be super cool to get a mesoscale floater on a rapidly-intensifying system like this. The way the eye cleared out in just a few 10-minute frames was spectacular -- if this trend holds the 125-kt forecast peak will verify & then some. I was dubious of the "Cat 5 Humberto" votes in the poll thread last night, but at this point? Stranger things have happened in 2025.

[MarioProtVI]

Definitely borderline EI going on right now. Cat 5 not out of the question but because recon wont be to Humberto it’s really gonna have to depend on Dvorak cooperating.

[psyclone]

Seems like a cat 4+ or bust season. Wow. We could easily see another one or 2 additional majors this season with all that untapped warmth in the Caribbean. Humberto is going to stack some ace chips too. Once we depart the August and early September dead zone...it's off to the races. Head on a swivel if you're in those late season hot zones.

[Kazmit]

Dare I say it looks like a high-end cat 3 already?

[sasha_B]

RI30 criteria have already been met, if we take the 12z intensity point of 75 kts at face value - the 12z BT fix & the 15z full advisory yesterday were both 45 kts if I'm not mistaken. Assuming Humberto is between 85 and 95 kts right now, that's 40～50 kts of intensification in the past 24h, with deepening of at least 30 hPa (1004 hPa per NHC, at this time yesterday → 974 hPa estimated by ADT right now) in the same interval. Wondering what this storm will look like by the time they do the 18z subjective Dvorak fix....

[aspen]

Dare I say it looks like a high-end cat 3 already?

https://i.ibb.co/xK1rhtpH/IMG-4917.jpg

Probably going to need a special advisory shortly. I’d say 95-105 kt — the winds may be lagging behind its rapid structural improvements a bit.

[zzzh]

No recon, not even a meso sector for Humberto. I guess random clouds over SE/SW US are more important than a major hurricane?

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

No recon, not even a meso sector for Humberto. I guess random clouds over SE/SW US are more important than a major hurricane?

The lack of attention Humberto — and 94L, to a lesser extent — are getting is so odd. No posted recon plans for Humberto nor meso sectors for either yet. At least we had a low-level and an upper-level flight, but I’d expect much more recon activity than what we’re seeing.

[zzzh]

These 2 have the same intensity according to the NHC.

[WaveBreaking]

Once again this season I wake up to an ERI-ing hurricane that’s 2 categories higher than anyone thought it would be at this time.