USTropics wrote:tolakram wrote:aspen wrote:The lack of attention Humberto — and 94L, to a lesser extent — are getting is so odd. No posted recon plans for Humberto nor meso sectors for either yet. At least we had a low-level and an upper-level flight, but I’d expect much more recon activity than what we’re seeing.
Why? 94L is more important at the moment as it threatens landfall. These are exciting systems but recon doesn't run just to satisfy our curiosity. They will be VERY busy over the next few days, I would delay as long as possible.
Can confirm this is exactly what NHC is doing. There is an untasked recon flight for Humberto later this evening (per my sources). They will be flying into Humberto as the system approaches Bermuda, but for now 94L remains somewhat more of a mystery (how does it interact with the ULL over the Southeast, how does shear and dry air subsidence dump from Humberto impact development, etc.). A lot of uncertainty in the models, which is why we need moar data.
Is this going to be an untasked center pass? Because if so they could actually catch Humberto as it’s peaking.
officially just reaching Category 3 an hour ago. Either way, intensification has been rapid indeed: officially, 50 kts in 24 hours, plausibly closer to 60～65 kts, with the corresponding drop in pressure being somewhere between 38～50 hPa over the same 24h period. This season, despite its below-average ACE/storm count to date, is 3-for-3 on hurricanes dramatically overperforming their initial forecasts.
