NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#241 Postby KPILM » Fri Sep 26, 2025 4:59 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:The forecast has this briefly as a Cat 1 but then back down to a tropical storm. The conditions to prevent this from strengthening much must be very brutal. Good news for wind, but still bad news for rain if this stall does happen.


It looks like a deluge of rain, and that's definitely bad, but a strong hurricane ripping a piece off your roof and then inches of rain pouring into the hole is even worse, so if I were forced to choose between the two I'd lean towards the rain. That's what happened to the apartment building I lived in back during Florence. A chunk of roof got snatched off a corner on the opposite end of my building and then rain dumped inside for days, destroyed that apartment as well as the one underneath. The uncertainty here has got me antsy. I'd consider rolling out of town for a couple of days when it gets closer, but I don't even know where I'd go since there's no telling where it will eventually end up, could just be driving straight into it.
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#242 Postby La Sirena » Fri Sep 26, 2025 5:02 pm

KPILM wrote:Man, I sure hope this thing doesn't stall and dump rain for days. I could go the rest of my life without another Florence.

I could certainly go without another Helene in the southern Appalachians :double:
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#243 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 26, 2025 5:11 pm

Dr. Cowan's latest video:



Link: https://youtu.be/pjDQVhvT4Ms
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Re: NATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion (80/90)

#244 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Where would you put the most likely area for it to form now? Would it be farther NW than the 12Z position?


Maybe somewhere west of the island ~21.5N 74.5W around early Saturday morning.
What are your thoughts?


As long as I see those low level clouds continue moving W I don’t know why the NHC “X” won’t continue W to WNW. That NHC “X” was swung from E to W over past 5 advisories without gaining much latitude.


About 36nm off

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.6W
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#245 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:15 pm

Cleared out the PV Streamer

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor1.GIF

Should see a solid spin up around 25N 76.5W
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Re: NATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion (80/90)

#246 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:33 pm

boca wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:
Maybe somewhere west of the island ~21.5N 74.5W around early Saturday morning.
What are your thoughts?


As long as I see those low level clouds continue moving W I don’t know why the NHC “X” won’t continue W to WNW. That NHC “X” was swung from E to W over past 5 advisories without gaining much latitude.


That cold front is advancing SE cutting across the Gulf thru N Florida and I would think 94L would hits brick wall and turn NNW very soon.


Trof will become negative tilted.
This is where a real Fujiwhara interaction will effect the storm and actually pull it more toward the US Coast
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Re: NATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion (80/90)

#247 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:50 pm

GCANE wrote:
boca wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
As long as I see those low level clouds continue moving W I don’t know why the NHC “X” won’t continue W to WNW. That NHC “X” was swung from E to W over past 5 advisories without gaining much latitude.


That cold front is advancing SE cutting across the Gulf thru N Florida and I would think 94L would hits brick wall and turn NNW very soon.


Trof will become negative tilted.
This is where a real Fujiwhara interaction will effect the storm and actually pull it more toward the US Coast


GCANE, 21N/75W moving WNW at 10… This continued WNW and not NW is going to result in 9 coming very close to SFL!
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#248 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:53 pm

BULLETIN

800 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF HOLGUIN CUBA...
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Re: NATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion (80/90)

#249 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:54 pm

Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:
boca wrote:
That cold front is advancing SE cutting across the Gulf thru N Florida and I would think 94L would hits brick wall and turn NNW very soon.


Trof will become negative tilted.
This is where a real Fujiwhara interaction will effect the storm and actually pull it more toward the US Coast


GCANE, 21N/75W moving WNW at 10… This continued WNW and not NW is going to result in 9 coming very close to SFL!


Going to tap in more to the Gulf Stream.
We all know what that means
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#250 Postby syfr » Fri Sep 26, 2025 6:59 pm

It's just about due south of Hatteras at this point.
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#251 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 7:02 pm

Latest drop from Kermit shows it will be tracking toto low shear.
Good relative humidity thru 700mb
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#252 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 7:06 pm

Looks like continuous refire with strong lightning at 21.9N 74.3W
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#253 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 26, 2025 7:09 pm

Kermit currently flying at 640mb.
Would be a big tell if it drops to 850mb.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion (80/90)

#254 Postby Weathertracker96 » Fri Sep 26, 2025 7:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:
boca wrote:
That cold front is advancing SE cutting across the Gulf thru N Florida and I would think 94L would hits brick wall and turn NNW very soon.


Trof will become negative tilted.
This is where a real Fujiwhara interaction will effect the storm and actually pull it more toward the US Coast

Watching closely myself. I did see the gfs moved a little more west in Bahamas. A lot of variables at play.

GCANE, 21N/75W moving WNW at 10… This continued WNW and not NW is going to result in 9 coming very close to SFL!
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#255 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 26, 2025 7:35 pm

00z Best Track has low hugging the coast of Cuba near Holguin.

AL, 09, 2025092700, , BEST, 0, 213N, 756W, 30, 1007, DB


Image
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#256 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Sep 26, 2025 8:19 pm

Looks like that jump the GFS has been predicting might just be happening
Image
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#257 Postby floridasun » Fri Sep 26, 2025 8:40 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Looks like that jump the GFS has been predicting might just be happening
https://i.imgur.com/Mg20u68.gif
what notice i see someone post models for ptc 9 may get closer to south fl as move up to Carolina affecting all florida coast with stormy weather what you see?
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#258 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 26, 2025 8:44 pm

Image

Looks like the COC is just SW of that deep convection and just N of Cuba. Still moving WNW when it is supposed to be moving N or NW per 5pm advisory and models.
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#259 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 26, 2025 9:32 pm

Image

00z 21.3/75.6… Track had AL9 making 75.8 at 5pm tomorrow… Might be at 75.8 at 11 tonight!
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Re: NATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#260 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Sep 26, 2025 9:34 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/KvGXrRsQ/goes19-ir-09-L-202509270017.gif [/url]

Looks like the COC is just SW of that deep convection and just N of Cuba. Still moving WNW when it is supposed to be moving N or NW per 5pm advisory and models.


8pm nhc wnw 10mph
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