NATL: IMELDA - Models

[Coolcruiseman]

New hafs gets fairly close to the florida eastcoast. One of those times to stress a tc is not a dot on a map the affects always extend far out from any given center. The cone only covers were the center is going to be.

Potential squally rainbands..

https://i.postimg.cc/y8rth3pk/vvvvvvll.png

https://i.postimg.cc/gjDBxx62/ccc.png

That has been my concern is a stall and the ridge building back in forcing the storm west before it makes the north trajectory.

The cold front advancing thru N Florida so hopefully that will maybe deflect it away.

The front is forecast to stall late Saturday so where it stalls is going to determine to what degree it deflects.

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS is stalling the system offshore (similar to the NHC track) May be leaning toward icon/cmc now.

[JtSmarts]

This could end up being another big win for the icon, still a few more days of models cycles to go.

[TampaWxLurker]

The trend is your friend in this instance. First GFS slowed it down and stalled inland, now slows it down further enough for Humberto to catch up.

If that solution ends up verifying, but kudos to the Icon.

[Pelicane]

That would be far enough offshore that the heaviest rain would be over the ocean.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS Trend closer to SFL.

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro AI doesn't hit SC, but does make landfall in the OBX and goes up the Chesapeake Bay.

[LarryWx]

The trend is your friend in this instance. First GFS slowed it down and stalled inland, now slows it down further enough for Humberto to catch up.

If that solution ends up verifying, but kudos to the Icon.

Not only the Icon but also the UKMET, which has still not yet had a single run with a conus landfall!

[Powellrm]

I am a big advocate the ICON model, and this would be another great call by ICON. It’s certainly off here and there, but ICON has had a history of nailing some complex systems early on in the process, and sticking to its data. This would be one of the wildest wins for ICON. Also, as a Carolinian who got 4 feet of water in his house from Chantal, the ICON’s fujiwhara effect solution would be a huge relief.

[BobHarlem]

All the 18z hurricane models but the HWRF make landfall. 18z euro stalls right off the SC coast.
Hafs-A:

Hafs-B:

HWRF:

HMON:

[cycloneye]

Models are divided between landfall and no landfall.

[AnnularCane]

Models are divided between landfall and no landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/sH68Ds5.png

https://i.imgur.com/IF3tVqO.png

I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the NHC about now.

[chaser1]

I'll say one thing, thank heaven Humberto is moving slow and not 3 or 4 degrees closer to "9"! I can almost imagine the panic if a Cat 5 Humberto was unexpectedly pumping up and extending the W. Atlantic ridge while continuing a WNW track and at a faster forward motion. S.E. CONUS trough begins to retrograde and suddenly models begin to lock into duel St. Augustine / Savannah hurricane landfalls. Fortunately, that's even less likely to occur then a GFS 280 hr. Naples Fl. landfall forecast!

[LarryWx]

0Z Icon is again OTS from the US.

[CycloysisNegative]

GFS 54hrs out, slower and further SW again. Likely going to miss landfall, maybe even further from the coast this time. It’s also stronger by 8mb.

[CycloysisNegative]

Yeah GFS doesn’t even get close.. king ICON?

[Kazmit]

The GFS has CAVED to the glorious ICON.

[LarryWx]

The GFS has CAVED to the glorious ICON.

And to the UKMET, which like the Icon is once again staying away from US:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.5N 77.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2025 36 23.5N 77.3W 1004 38
0000UTC 29.09.2025 48 25.0N 77.5W 1002 38
1200UTC 29.09.2025 60 26.5N 78.0W 1001 38
0000UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.1N 78.3W 998 43
1200UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.3N 78.5W 995 42
0000UTC 01.10.2025 96 27.6N 76.9W 993 38
1200UTC 01.10.2025 108 27.4N 74.6W 991 45
0000UTC 02.10.2025 120 27.8N 71.6W 989 45
1200UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.3N 68.0W 987 48
0000UTC 03.10.2025 144 28.8N 63.5W 989 66
1200UTC 03.10.2025 156 29.8N 59.3W 994 54
0000UTC 04.10.2025 168 30.3N 56.7W 997 41

[Weathertracker96]

If the gfs keeps trending the way it is, parts of FL east coast could receive rain bands from this. It seems each run gets closer to coast which may help the Carolinas

[BobHarlem]

No US landfall on 0z gfs, although it barely dodges Bermuda on the way out.