NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Loop from sunrise to now
http://i.imgur.com/Lh2glf3.gifv

[GCANE]

Hmm.
Keeping an eye on the tail of the front in the GOM that just popped up on the 200mb vort product from CIMSS.
Lots of curve balls here.


https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What does that mean as far as track of TD9?

Could fling it back for a US landfall.
Actually, I am looking west of the convection in the GOM and it seems dry air is digging further south.
Watching this more closely during the day today.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Hmm.
Keeping an eye on the tail of the front in the GOM that just popped up on the 200mb vort product from CIMSS.
Lots of curve balls here.


https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

What does that mean as far as track of TD9?

Could fling it back for a US landfall.
Actually, I am looking west of the convection in the GOM and it seems dry air is digging further south.
Watching this more closely during the day today.

Models aren't even hinting at a trough split but the storm line is thinning a little towards the middle.
Could just be drier air is limiting cloud formation.
Less chance the front is going to undercut Imelda.

[MGC]

11AM forecast track is good news for the SE Coast. My goal of no hurricane landfalls in 2025 is still possible. TD9 is slowly coming together this morning. TD9 slow movement along with Hurricane Humberto steady NW progression will erode the ridge allowing future Imelda to follow.......MGC

[weeniepatrol]

Excerpt from the 11am NHC discussion #4:

The track forecast beyond 72 h is still of low confidence, with a
bifurcation of solutions noted in the various deterministic models
and GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble members. Much depends
on the future track of Hurricane Humberto, the extent to which it
erodes the steering ridge over the Atlantic, and the strength and
timing of an upper trough expected to dig over the northwestern
Atlantic next week. A majority of the deterministic guidance
suggests that the system will slow down or briefly stall offshore of
the southeast U.S. coast before turning sharply eastward. There
remains considerable uncertainty in how quickly this might occur,
and it must be noted that some ensemble solutions still show the
system reaching the coast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to
show an eastward turn at days 4-5, but at a much slower forward
speed than most of the models.

Exceptionally tricky forecast with many moving parts, yielding lower confidence than normal given the timeframe. Many solutions still very much on the table

[ronjon]

Getting those fanning cirrus clouds suggesting a small anticyclone building over TD9. Looks like she's starting to organize today.

[Duddy]

Regardless of landfall, extremely dangerous rainfall totals seem to always be a threat for the Carolina coasts in every model run. Some models showing more than we got in 2018 (24in). That washes away highways and left homes here under water.

I'm growing more concerned by the minute.

[tolakram]

I think recon finds a tropical storm, looks to be steadily organizing. As someone mentioned above the upper levels look favorable as well.

[Nimbus]

I think recon finds a tropical storm, looks to be steadily organizing. As someone mentioned above the upper levels look favorable as well.

https://i.imgur.com/GqvNws7.gif

Deterministic bifurcation, yeah that was the word we were looking for k

[Nimbus]

I think recon finds a tropical storm, looks to be steadily organizing. As someone mentioned above the upper levels look favorable as well.

https://i.imgur.com/GqvNws7.gif

Deterministic bifurcation, yeah that was the word we were looking for

[GCANE]

Seeing a high helicity hot tower quickly fire and then move east to west.
Good sign its picking up steam.

[REDHurricane]

LLC trying to form around here maybe?

[eastcoastFL]

Seeing a high helicity hot tower quickly fire and then move east to west.
Good sign its picking up steam.

is there a tornado threat for east Central Florida from this system?

[crimi481]

If the gulf trough pulls out or weakens more, would that let the high ridge build west- pushing storm west more?

[skillz305]

2pm NHC
22.0 N 76.5 W


No northern movement since 11am

[Teban54]

2pm NHC
22.0 N 76.5 W


No northern movement since 11am

The latest hot tower is basically right on top of the NHC position.

[wxman57]

Seeing a high helicity hot tower quickly fire and then move east to west.
Good sign its picking up steam.

is there a tornado threat for east Central Florida from this system?

Very unlikely. First of all dry air will be flowing across Florida through Monday. Second, tornadoes almost always form in the outer bands in the right-front quadrant of a storm.

[GCANE]

Afternoon popups already firing across Florida.
Will reduce shear ahead of the storm.

[boca]

Afternoon popups already firing across Florida.
Will reduce shear ahead of the storm.

Gcane do you see 9 moving more west towards S Florida than the forecast shows?